College Football Pick
By Jason Green
Baylor lost their head coach in the off-season in a scandal, but the team has not skipped a beat winning their first 4 Games and having a typical high-octane offense. They rank in the top 23 in the nation in passing and rushing yards per Game and unlike Baylor teams in the past few years they actually have a legit defense as well.
Iowa State lost their first 3 Games of the season before beating a weak San Jose State team in their last Game. They are a big home betting underdog facing a ranked Baylor team and in the only other Game this season they faced a top 25 team they were throttled losing 42-3 to Iowa.
In their last Games Baylor beat Oklahoma State 35-34 covering the spread as a 7-point favorite and Iowa State beat San Jose State 44-10 and easily covering as a 7.5-point favorite.
Iowa State is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home Games facing Baylor.
The Cyclones only rank tied for 82nd in the nation giving up an average of 29.5 ppg and can they keep Baylor from lighting up the scoreboard? That is the big question for them in this Big 12 match up.
Baylor is led by QB Seth Russell, who has passed for 1,148 yards with 13 TD and 4 TD and the ground Game is led by a couple of RB’s that each have over 265 rushing yards. The WR corps is one of the deepest in the nation and Iowa State’s secondary will have their hands full.
Iowa State has defended the pass better than the run this season, but they will have to do both in this home Game. The Cyclones had 8 sacks in their win over San Jose State and if they can pressure Russell in this Game they have a much better chance at the W.
Iowa State will play a couple of QB’s in Jacob Park and Joel LAnning, but the player that has a lot of pressure is RB Mike Warren. He has rushed for nearly 200 yards combined in the last 2 Games and if he can move the chains facing a Baylor run D that only ranks 79th in the nation it will really help the Cyclones’ defense, meaning keeping them off the field.
Baylor has only covered the spread in 3 of their last 11 Games and in an interesting trend they have failed to cover in their last 4 Games facing a team with a losing record.
Iowa State is a solid 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Big 12 Games, but only 6-17-3 in their last 26 Games facing a team with a winning record.
Jason’s Pick: Iowa State is coming off a win, but the other 2 legit teams they played they were crushed. Look for that to happen this Saturday in Ames, as Baylor will win and cover the 16.5-point spread.