College Football Pick
Baylor is in complete free fall and this is not the matchup the Bears wanted to see coming off back-to-back losses. since starting the season with two losses in three Games, the Sooners have won their last six and are the only undefeated team in Big 12 play. They were -14.5 point home favorites early in the week at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
When these teams met last year, a one-loss Oklahoma team went into Waco to beat the previously unbeaten Baylor, 44-34. The Bears had zero answers to stopping the one-two combo of quarterback Baker Mayfield and running back Semaje Perine. On the other end, the Sooners did enough to limit Baylor’s running Game and pick off a couple passes.
One year later, it could be a similar result, but possibly worse for Baylor. The Bears started the season 6-0, but they didn’t really have an impressive win and once the Schedule picked up, they faltered. They lost at Texas a couple weeks ago and then were embarrassed at home 62-22 last weekend against TCU. Back on the road, bettors will be hard-pressed to back the Bears.
On the other side, Oklahoma hasn’t looked all that convincing, but they’re undefeated in the Conference for a reason. The Sooners have done just enough to get by TCU, Texas Tech and Iowa State on the road, while not really being challenged at home yet.
Considering Baylor just gave up 62 points to TCU, there’s no reason to believe this defense will stop Oklahoma from getting to at least 40 in this Game.
Mayfield started the season slow, but now has 31 touchdowns to just six interceptions. He has a ridiculous 19 passing touchdowns in the last Four Games, highlighted by seven against Texas Tech. But maybe more important in this Game will be the rushing duo of Joe Mixon and Perine as the Bears just gave up 431 rushing yards last Game.
Perine has missed the last three Games, but he’s practicing this week and all signs point to him playing. Mixon missed the last Game due to suspension, but is slated to play in this one. Even if either one of those guys can’t go, Dimitri Flowers did just fine against the Cyclones rushing for 115 yards.
Defensively, the Sooners are a bigger toss up, already having given up 59 points to Texas Tech, 40 to Texas and 46 to TCU. If Baylor were to cover this Game, it’d be through the offense.
Seth Russell had a great start to the season and still has 27 total TDs to six interceptions, but he’s thrown for just six touchdowns in the last Four Games. His accuracy has been the bigger issue in recent Games, failing to complete more than 53% of his passes in the last three Games. If he can’t take care of the ball in this Game, there may be no chance to cover.
The Bears just don’t have as good of a running Game this year to get by without a consistent passing attack. Russell is fine as a runner and so are Terence Williams and Shock Linwood, but the team’s 5.4 yards per carry is a step below from previous versions of this offense.
The Bears have failed to cover in their last Four road Games, but are 18-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Sooners are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 Conference Games, but 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall and 1-5 ATS in their last six home Games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Our Pick – This line has been as high as Oklahoma -17 at betonline this week. Because of the fact that neither of these teams has much of a defense, we’ll become even more interested in Baylor, the higher the line goes. For now, Baylor +15.5