Central Michigan – Toledo NCAAF Game Preview and Pick to Cover the Spread

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Central Michigan

vs.

Toledo

College Football Pick

10/22/16

By Jason Green

Central Michigan is coming off a thrilling triple OT win over Northern Illinois in their last Game and they need a win in this Game to stay in the MAC East race. They have one Conference loss and trail Toledo and Western Michigan, who are 2-0 and 3-0, respectively, in Conference play. The Chippewas have won 2 in a row after dropping their first 2 Games of the season.

Toledo has also won 2 in a row and they have one of the highest scoring offenses in the nation ranking 10th averaging 43 ppg. They have balance on offense ranking in the top 28 in the nation in passing yards and rushing yards per Game.

The Rockets are a double-digit home favorite facing CMU and they have covered the spread in their last 6 Games facing them including their last 4 facing them at home.

CMU beat NIU 34-28 in 3 OT in their last Game and they covered the spread on the road as a 1.5-point underdog. Toledo beat Bowling Green 42-35 in a shootout in their last Game, but did not cover, or come close at all, as a 31.5-point home favorite.

The Rockets are led by QB Logan Woodside, who has 24 TD and only 4 INT on the season and in the win over Bowling Green he passed for 322 yards with 4 TD and only 1 INT, In every Game, but the season opener he has passed for at least 4 TD and his loaded WR corps led by Cody Thompson will be a handful facing a CMU pass D that ranks 34th in the nation. Kareem Hunt leads Rockets’ the ground Game and he had rushed for at least 123 yards in 3 straight Games before having 99 in the Bowling Green Game.

CMU is led by their passing offense, as they only rank 95th in the nation in rushing yards per Game. Cooper Rush has over 2,000 passing yards with 18 TD and he has a balanced WR corps with 3 players with at least 355 receiving yards. While Rush is the leader the team has leaned more on the run Game lately and it has paid off with 2 straight wins with RB Devon Spalding rushing for 157 yards and 124 yards in the last 2 Games.

Toledo ranks 35th in the nation in pass defense and 62nd in run defense. They have to play better D than they did facing a 1-win Bowling Green team in their last Game where they gave up over 500 yards.

CMU is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road Games, 17-8 ATS in their last 25 Games following a ATS win, and in their last 5 Games facing a team with a winning record the posted total has gone Under every time.

Toledo is 16-4-2 ATS in their last 22 Games overall, 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home Games vs. a team with a winning road record, and in their last 4 home Games the posted total has gone Over every time.

Bettorsworld Pick – Central Michigan has lost 5 straight in this series but last years Game was decided by just 5. Toledo getting by Bowling Green (one of worst teams in nation) by just a TD last week is the only sign we need that a Central Michigan cover and maybe more, is a very likely outcome. Central Michigan +10