Florida State – NC State College Football ATS Pick

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Florida State

vs.

NC State

College Football Pick

11/5/16

The jury is still out on if Florida State is actually good or not and that’s kind of built into this line. We know NC State isn’t good and they are coming off three losses of their own. The Seminoles were just -6 point road favorites early in the week as seen at 5 Dimes Sportsbook.

since the ‘Noles lost big at Louisville, they haven’t really had a nice win on the Schedule. They won at USF, barely got by Miami, and beat Wake in a defensive battle. OUtside of that, they lost to UNC and Clemson, both at home.

As for NC State, it looks like they were overrated a bit after beating Notre Dame in a Game that was played in a puddle, and then they should’ve beat Clemson the next week. But since the loss to the Tigers, the Wolfpack were blown out at Louisville and lost 21-14 to Boston College last week.

In last year’s meeting, NC State was looking at an upset on the road after getting out to an early 17-7 lead in the first quarter, but they couldn’t hold onto that. Dalvin Cook proved to be too much and the ‘Noles ended up winning 34-17.

It’ll be interesting to see if safety Derwin James can play in this Game, as he’s a difference maker. He was close to coming back for Clemson, but didn’t make it. Otherwise, this defense hasn’t been very good.

That said, it’s not like the Wolfpack are anything special, having not scored more than 17 points in the last Four Games. Quarterback Ryan Finley has picked up an interception problem in the last three Games, throwing two picks in each of them. His completion rate has also hit a wall, having not gone above 56.1% in the last Four Games. He’s played some good teams, but he has to be better than what he’s been.

The same goes for running back Matthew Dayes. After Dayes ran for 100 yards in five of the first six Games, he has just 58 in the last two. If the Wolfpack want a chance at winning or covering, they’ll need to get the ground Game churning.

If not, we know what the guy on the other side of the field can do. Dalvin Cook has taken off in the last five Games, reaching 115 yards in all of them. against Clemson, he was everything as he went for 169 yards and Four touchdowns. It wouldn’t be surprising if Cook broke another long one off in this Game.

But to get the cover, the Seminoles may need a little more from freshman QB Deondre Francois. He’s been fine for the most part, but outside of the opener, hasn’t had another eye-popping Game. With this defense being beatable, this could be a good chance for Francois to come out of the woodwork again, having just Four passing touchdowns in the last Four Games.

The Seminoles have covered in Four straight following a straight-up loss and are 4-1 ATS in their last five road Games. The Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last five home Games, but 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Our Pick – It’s close Games against the likes of Wake Forest, Miami and North Carolina that prevent us from using the Noles in a chalk role. Just don’t trust them to extend any kind of a margin. That said, it’s also worth noting that this Game was +7.5 earlier in the week and a smart bettor doesn’t take +5.5 when they could have had +7.5.

So at the current line, we’ll call it a lean. It becomes stronger at +7 or better. FSU +5.5