Iowa
vs.
Minnesota Big 10
College Football Pick
10/8/16
By Jason Green
Iowa has lost 2 of their last 3 Games and at 1-1 in Big 10 play things don’t look good since in the 2nd half they still have to face the currently ranked teams of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nebraska. Their offense has stalled on the season and they gave up 38 points in their last Game, which was at home no less.
Minnesota is back at home after suffering a 3-point OT loss on the road to Penn State in their last Game. They have a legit rushing offense, but they only rank 13th out of 14 teams in the Conference in overall offense.
In their last Games Iowa lost 38-31 facing Northwestern at home where they came nowhere near covering as an 11-point favorite. Minnesota lost a tough 29-26 OT Game to Penn State in their last outing where the Game was a pick with the Golden Gophers as a 3-point favorite.
Minnesota does not rank in the top 94 in the nation in passing or rushing yards per Game. QB C.J. Beathard has not passed more than 28 times in any Game this season and look for the Hawkeyes to lean heavily on lead rusher LeShun Daniels and backfield mate Akrum Wadley. Still, the strength of the Minnesota defense is against the run, so Iowa may want to air it out more in this Conference match up.
Minnesota RB Rodney Smith is the big gun on offense and even in the loss to Penn State he rushed for 104 yards. The Gophers have 4 guys that have rushed for at least 141 yards and look for them to get a lot of reps facing an Iowa run defense that only ranks 87th in the nation.
In the loss to Northwestern the Hawkeyes nearly gave up 200 rushing yards.
The run Game will be key for both teams and in Iowa’s 40-35 win over Minnesota last season they racked up 272 rushing yards.
Iowa is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road Games, 0-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and they have an Under record of 41-20-3 in their last 64 road Games.
Minnesota is 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 Conference Games, 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and in their last 4 Big 10 Games the Over record is 4-0.
Minnesota has covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 Games facing Iowa.
Jason’s Pick: You know most of the betting trends point to Minnesota covering in this Game. However, I am going to buck the trends, as Iowa will dominate the ground and while their D may continue to struggle the Hawkeyes will win and cover the 1.5-point spread.