Iowa- Penn State NCAAF Game Preview and Pick to Cover the Spread

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Iowa Hawkeyes

vs.

Penn State Nittany Lions

By Jason Green

11/5/16

Penn State did not have a letdown after their HUGE upset of Ohio State beating Purdue 62-24 in their last Game. The Nittany Lions have won Four in a row and they have not given up more than 26 points in any of those wins. You could say looking at their stats, 65th in the nation in passing yards per Game 82nd in rushing yards per Game, they don’t have a dynamic offense, but they did put up 62 points in their last Game.

Iowa is coming off a loss where they played good defense holding a top 10 Wisconsin team to only 17 points, but they only scored nine points. They only need one more Game to become bowl eligible and besides facing a 2-win Illinois their remaining 3 Games come against ranked teams. Iowa has a legit defense, which ranks tied for 16th only giving up an average of 18.9 ppg, but on offense they only rank 107th in passing yards per Game and 72nd in rushing yards per Game.

Hard to believe, but these teams have not met since the 2012 season at Iowa where the Nittany Lions crushed the Hawkeyes 38-14.

Iowa lost to Wisconsin 17-9 in their last Game and at home they did not cover the spread as a 3.5-point underdog.

Penn State laid a 62-24 beat down on Purdue in their last Game, which was on the road no less, easily covering as a 14.5-point favorite.

In their loss to Wisconsin the Hawkeyes only had 236 total yards and they failed to even rush for 85 yards. QB C.J Bethhard only had 153 yards passing in the loss to Wisconsin and that was his highest output in 2 Games. Iowa needs to run the ball to win and Akrum Wadley, who has rushed for at least 100 yards in 2 straight Games, and LeShun Daniels Jr., who rushed for 150 yards in the previous Game, got nothing going on the ground.

This Game actually sets up well for the Iowa offense, as Penn State is much stronger defending the pass than the run. The Nittany Lions run defense only ranks 81st in the nation, biut the stuffed Purdue in their last Game holding them to 46 rushing yards.

Penn State racked up 511 yards of offense in the win over Purdue and they rushed for 257 yards. Trace McSorley was solid passing for 3 TD and 0 INT and Saquon Barkley was even bigger coming out of the backfield to rush for over 200 yards. He has eclipsed the 200 yards barrier in 2 of the last 3 Games.

The Iowa defense is solid and has balance ranking 58th in the nation in pass defense and 53rd in run defense.

Iowa is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road Games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Games following a straight up loss, and in their last 7 Games the posted total has gone Under 5 times.

PSU is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 Games overall, 3-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and in their last 12 Games the posted total has gone Over 9 times.

Bettorsworld Pick – When we run this Game through Our model using full season stats the margin comes up right around the number. However, when we use only data from the last 4 Games, the model has Penn State winning going away. In otherwords, of the two teams, it’s Penn State who’s playing better football right now. Penn State -7