Kentucky
vs.
Louisville
College Football Pick
11/26/16
The question for Louisville now becomes whether they’ll have motivation in this Game or not. The Cardinals didn’t show up in their last Game at Houston, which will ultimately cost them a chance for the College Football Playoff. That said, motivation shouldn’t be a huge problem against an in-state rival. Although, that’s never a guarantee.
Kentucky may not be very good, but the Wildcats aren’t a walkover. Any time a team has Four wins in the SEC, that’s good enough, no matter the division played in. They may not have many impressive wins, but UK showed fight this season and that’s all that was needed. They went on a three-Game winning streak with Games over Vandy and Mississippi State, while taking Georgia down to the wire. The ‘Cats even made a Game at Tennessee, losing by 13 points.
If Louisville shows up, then there’s no telling how many points they’ll put on this defense. against any relevant offense this season, the Wildcats have given up loads of points, most recently 49 against the Vols.
But Louisville actually hasn’t been that consistent since early in the year. In the second half of the season, the Cardinals struggled to beat teams like Duke and Virginia. Most recently, they were losing through three quarters against Wake Forest and then were dominated by Houston. This offense is explosive led by LAmar Jackson, but they aren’t all that consistent.
However, last year’s matchup is about all that needs to be looked at. Louisville won 38-24 and Jackson didn’t even start. In fact, Kyle Bolin started, but threw two picks in his first two series and was benched. Jackson ended up running for 186 yards and a couple touchdowns to go with another TD through the air. Unfortunately for Kentucky, their defense hasn’t been much better this season and that’ll probably come into play here.
Jackson is still near the top of the Heisman lists, but if he puts in another seven-touchdown Game against UK, he would reaffirm that spot. But after getting sacked nine times against the Cougars, maybe the holes were found in the Louisville offense.
On the other end, Louisville’s defense has looked good at times, but there aren’t a ton of great offenses in the ACC. Overall, they’ve struggled against better offenses, Clemson and Houston included.
The Wildcats may not be good, but they can put points on the board. Getting 36 at Tennessee and 24 against Georgia, even in losses, is fairly impressive.
The problem is that most of their success comes in the running Game, where Louisville usually excels. Stephen Johnson has struggled at quarterback and has only thrown touchdown passes in two of the last seven Games. The offense goes through running backs Stanley Williams and Benny Snell Jr and it’s looking like both will hit 1,000 yards on the season.
The Cardinals are now just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight Games overall, which says about everything after their hot start. As for the Cats, they were 6-1 ATS in their seven Games before the Austin Peay meeting this past weekend.
Our Pick – Kentucky +26