College Football Pick
By Jason Green
While Kentucky is only 1 Game above .500 they still have a chance, albeit a small one, to win the SEC East. They have to win this Game against Tennessee, this is their last SEC Game, and have Florida drop their remaining Conference Games. It is a long shot, but at least they have a shot, but first they have to get by Tennessee in their house. The Wildcats had their 3-Game winning streak snapped in their last Game in a tough loss to Georgia where they gave up a field goal as time expired to lose by 3.
The Volunteers were more than happy to get out of Conference play in their last Game, which was an easy 55-0 blowout win over Tennessee Tech. They had lost their previous 3 Games and all 3 were in SEC play. The Volunteers are 2-3 in Conference play and on the season they are 4-1 at home with their only loss coming against top-ranked Alabama.
Tennessee has been THE best facing Kentucky in the last few years, as they are not only 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Games facing them overall but are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Games against them in their house.
In their last Game Kentucky lost at home to Georgia 27-24 not covering as a 2.5-point underdog.
Tennessee easily covered the 41-point spread in their 55-0 win over Tennessee Tech.
The UK RB duo of Stanley Williams and Benny Snell Jr. had most of the 186 rushing yards in the loss to Georgia. Snell Jr. has been playing well as of late with 3 straight Games rushing for over 110 yards. The run Game is key for the Wildcats since their passing offense only ranks 109th in the nation in passing yards per Game.
Tennessee’s run defense only ranks 83rd in the nation and that has to be a concern facing a run-first Wildcats’ team.
The Volunteers will have to go the rest of their season without RB Jalen Hurd, who has decided to transfer and he has left the team. That puts more pressure on QB Joshua Dobbs, who has 2 TD and 5 INT in the 3-Game losing streak before playing pretty well in the easy win over Tennessee Tech. John Kelly has rushed for nearly 200 yards combined in the last 2 Games and he will be the lead RB in this SEC contest.
UK only ranks 64th in the nation in pass defense and 92nd in run defense. The Wildcats only road win this season came against Conference foe Missouri, who are winless (0-5) in SEC play.
UK is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Games overall, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Games following a straight up loss, and in their last 7 road Games, the posted total has gone Under 6 times.
Tennessee is 7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 Games following an ATS win, and in their last 6 SEC Games the posted total has gone Over 5 times.
Bettorsworld Pick – One of the things we do with Our Score Prediction model, is we use different time frame parameters to come up with a predicted score. For example, we’ll post a prediction using an entire season’s worth of data but we’ll also post some predictions using only the last several weeks to judge how teams are playing right NOW. When we do that with this Game, the margin shrinks significantly. Kentucky +13