College Football Pick
There are no questions of what we’ll get out of this LSU team this year, while Arkansas may be the exact opposite. That makes betting this Game a bit more interesting than others.
The line is interesting for a number of reasons, mainly because the Tigers have played only one true road Game this year and lost that 18-13. And with how defensive they play, betting on them for more than a touchdown is tough. The Tigers were on a winning streak with Ed Orgeron in charge, but beating Ole Miss at home was their only difficult Game in that period. Battling Alabama in a 10-0 loss last weekend was impressive, but they didn’t cover in the end.
Arkansas has been as unpredictable as ever getting dismantled 56-3 by Auburn one week and then easily taking care of Florida the next. The Razorbacks can be one of the best teams in the SEC at times, but also one of the worst in the West. Playing at home, they’ve already lost twice to Texas A&M and Alabama, but as seen in their win against the Gators, they can beat defensive-heavy teams.
The one thing teams have to do if they want to beat LSU is stop the run. again, Arkansas is unpredictable, so there’s no telling how that will turn out. However, the Hogs did hold Leonard Fournette to just 91 yards on the road in last year’s 31-14 win. They won on both sides of the field, running for 299 yards and a few touchdowns themselves.
If they Razorbacks can do that again, they’ll be looking at another upset. That’s exactly how they took down Florida last weekend as Rawleigh Williams III ran for 148 yards and a couple touchdowns with his backup Devwah Whaley going for 66 yards.
LSU’s defense has been good this year, but similar to last year, they can be beat. The Crimson Tide ran for 216 yards against them last week and Arkansas will try and do the same thing. Razorbacks quarterback Austin Allen has looked good this year (19 TDs, 8 INTs), but if the ground Game is working again, he won’t be asked to do much after attempting 26 passes against the Gators.
As for the Tigers, it’s Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice or bust. Fournette will undoubtedly have a better outing than the ‘Bama Game, but if he and Guice can’t go for 200-plus yards, it’ll be hard for LSU to cover this Game on the road. Guice wasn’t even used against the Tide after having success in Fournette’s absence. LSU doesn’t have much of a passing Game once again and Danny Etling obviously isn’t the answer.
Etling has just seven touchdowns and Four interceptions on the season with three of those TDs coming in a win against Southern Miss. If Arkansas can contain Fournette somewhat, this should be at the least another cover for the Hogs.
The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road Games and 2-5 ATS in their last seven following an ATS loss. The Razorbacks don’t have many trends, but the under is 5-1 in their last six home Games and 10-1-2 in LSU’s last 13 Games.
Our Pick – LSU -7