Miami – NC State Free College Football Pick against the Spread

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Miami

vs.

NC State

College Football Pick

11/19/16

By Jason Green

Miami has gotten over their 4-Game losing streak by winning 2 in a row and while they will not play in the ACC title Game they can improve their bowl position by winning out. After their offense struggled for a while they have put up 51 points and 34 points in their last 2 Games and on top of that they rank a solid 13th in the nation giving up an average of 19.3 ppg.

NC State recently snapped their 4-Game skid by winning their last Game. They need one more win to be bowl eligible, but it is a tough road first facing Miami and then ending the season on the road to face a ranked North Carolina team. They have a good passing offense and a decent defense, but they are a home underdog in this Game.

Miami beat Virginia in their last Game 34-14 on the road and they covered the spread being a 10-point favorite.

NC State was also on the road in their last Game beating Syracuse 35-20 where they covered the spread as a 7.5-point favorite.

Miami played a solid Game on both sides of the ball in the win over Virginia with 450 yards and holding the Cavaliers to 289 yards. When the Canes began the season 4-0 Brad Kaya was a Heisman contender, but no longer. Still, he is a solid QB with a good WR corps and in the Virginia Game he passed for 228 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT. RB Mark Walton had 111 rushing yards and for the Game the Canes had 222 yards on the ground.

North Carolina State only ranks 84th in the nation in pass defense, but their run defense is one the best in the nation ranking 4th.

NC State dominated Syracuse in their last Game racking up 544 yards and only giving up 218 yards. QB Ryan Finley had a big Game passing for 340 yards with a TD and Matthew Dayes rushed for over 100 yards. They will be facing a Miami defense that is pretty balanced ranking 43rd against the pass and 39th against the run.

Miami is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games following a ATS win and in their last 7 Games after a win the posted total has gone Under 5 times.

NC State is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home Games, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Games overall, and in their last 6 Games the posted total has gone Under 5 times.

Jason’s Pick: NC State is a tough place to play and they have been a solid bet there this season. However, Miami does have more talent and they will win, cover the spread, and kill NC State’s bowl hopes.