Navy
vs.
Air Force
College Football Pick
10/1/16
By Jason Green
Navy is coming off a bye and while they are 3-0 they are playing without their inured QB in Tago Smith. They are already 2-0 in AAC play this season, but head to Air Force as a 7.5-point betting favorite.
Air Force is also off to a 3-0 start and they beat a decent Utah State team in their last Game. The big question in this Game is which team will play the better run defense? Neither team really airs it out, but the Falcons rank 2nd in the nation in rushing yards per Game and Navy ranks 5th in that category.
Last week Air Force beat Utah State 27-20 covering as a 5.5-point road favorite and Navy beat Tulane 21-14 with the Game being a PICK since they were favored on the road by 7 points.
Navy rushed for 287 yards in their win over Tulane and they have 4 players that have rushed for at least 113 yards on the season led by RB Chris High. QB Will Worth has filled in for Smith and he is the team’s leading 2nd leading rusher.
Obviously stopping the run is key for the Falcons, as Worth has only passed for 267 yards with 1 TD and 0 INT. However, Navy may want to go to the air more in this Game facing an Air Force team that gave up 372 passing yards in the win over Utah State.
Air Force ranked up 213 rushing yards in the win over Utah State and they also had 113 passing yards. QB Nate Romine is the 3rd leading rusher for the Falcons, only averaging 3.7 yards per carry, and he has passed for 364 yards with 3 TD and 0 INT. He only has a completion percentage of 40% and when he drops back he really has to worry about Navy OLB D.J. Palmore, who has 3 sacks on the season.
Air Force has no lack of rushers, as they have 6 players with at least 117 yards on the ground.
This season Air Force ranks 2nd in the nation defending the run and Navy ranks 75th.
Navy is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 Games overall and they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games facing a team that has a winning record.
Air Force is a solid 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home Games and they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Games overall.
Navy is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 Games facing Air Force including 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road Games against them.
Jason’s Pick: Air Force has looked impressive this season, but Navy is still the better team and they will not only cover the spread getting 7.5-points, but also get the win as well.