Oklahoma State – Kansas State College Football ATS Pick

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Oklahoma State

vs.

Kansas State

College Football Pick

11/5/16

By Jason Green

Oklahoma State is bowl eligible and they even have a legit shot to win the Big 12 title, but they will likely have to run the table and beat Oklahoma in their house in the season finale. The Cowboys have reeled off 4 straight wins and their offense ranks in the top 20 in the nation in both passing yards per Game and points per Game.

KSU needs one more win to be bowl eligible and they have won 2 in a row. They were less than impressive in their last Game narrowly beating an Iowa State team that only has 1 win where they gave up a ton of yards. OSU is back in the rankings after their last win and KSU has lost both of their Games this season facing top 25 teams.

Kansas State has covered the spread in in their last 5 Games facing Oklahoma State and have covered in 5 of their last 6 Games facing them at home.

Oklahoma State came up with a huge win in their last Game handing West Virginia their first loss of the season 37-20 where the Cowboys covered as a 4.5-point home underdog.

Kansas State beat Iowa State 31-26 on the road in their last Game, but they did not cover as a 6-point favorite.

Mason Rudolph is the big gun for the OSU offense and the QB has been stellar in the Cowboys win streak with 11 TD and 0 INT. He has a good WR corps and while the run Game is not the strength of the team RB Justice Hill has rushed for at last 122 yards in 3 of 4 Games before getting stuffed in the WVU Game only averaging 2.8 yards per carry and gaining 54 yards. OSU won against WVU even though they were outgained 421 tp 358 yards, but the Cowboys’ D did force 3 turnovers.

The Wildcats had a solid rushing Game in the win over Iowa State with 247 yards on the ground, but they also gave up 339 passing yards as well as 154 rushing yards. Still, duel threat QB Zack Erts went for over 100 rushing yards and he and RB Charles Jones have combined for 916 rushing yards.

KSU did not flex their pass defense in their last Game, but overall they rank 5th in the nation in that category. On the other side of the coin the weakness of the Cowboys D is their pass defense, which only ranks 99th in the nation. Can the Wildcats, who are a run first team take advantage of that?

OSU is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Games following a straight up win, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Games following a ATS win, and in their last 15 Games the posted total has gone Over 11 times.

KSU is 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games following a ATS loss, and in their last 7 Games going up against a team that has a winning record the posted total has gone Under 5 times.

Jason’s Pick: KSU gave up 339 passing yards against Iowa State and now they face one of the better passing offenses in the nation? Look for Rudolph to have a big Game and while this Game will be a close one the Cowboys will not only cover the spread, but get the W as well.