College Football Pick
The Big 12 doesn’t have a championship Game, but this can be considered one, although Oklahoma will be at home. Both of these teams were far from being considered national contenders in the first month, but that’s surely changed since rankings were released. The Sooners are -11.5 point home favorites at 5 Dimes Sportsbook with a whopping total of 77.5 and climbing.
When these teams met a year ago, it was a demolition, which may or may not have pushed this line a point or two. The Sooners did whatever they wanted in a 58-23 win on the road as they ran for 344 yards and five touchdowns. The difference may be that Mason Rudolph wasn’t the starting quarterback for Oklahoma State. Rudolph has led the Cowboys’ winning streak over the last couple months.
An early season loss to Central Michigan may surprisingly keep the Cowboys out of the playoff race, although they technically shouldn’t have lost. And after a road loss at Baylor, they’ve turned things around and gotten the job done when needed, including taking down an undefeated West Virginia.
Oklahoma had a similar start to the season, but losing to Houston and Ohio State isn’t quite comparable to the Chippewas. since then, the Sooners haven’t lost and most recently won huge at West Virginia 56-28. The problem they have is that even with a win in this Game, a home loss to Ohio State could keep them out of the CFP and the Buckeyes in.
This Game could easily go the same as last year, especially with how Baker Mayfield and the Oklahoma offense has looked as of late. They just ripped to shreds a good Mountaineers defense, although Mayfield wasn’t really asked to pass with just 15 attempts. It was the running Game between Joe Mixon (147 yards) and Samaje Perine (160 yards) that did everything. The problem for OK State is that’s exactly how they lost to the Sooners a year ago. A similar fate may be waiting them, but there is one major difference to look at.
The Sooners have been bad most of the season on defense and even in their win at WVU, they still let one guy rush for 331 yards on 24 carries. That’s beyond terrible and their defense has given up points in bunches multiple times.
Unfortunately for the Cowboys, their running Game isn’t exactly their strong suit. That said, Justice Hill has been a bright spot with 943 yards on the season, and he’s joined by Chris Carson, who’s really stepped it up the last couple Games. If those guys can repeat what they did at TCU last weekend (300 combined rushing yards), then the Cowboys could be in business for at least a cover. But in addition to that, Mason Rudolph has been vital to this offense with 25 touchdowns and only Four interceptions this season. That’s a small difference from last year, but a big enough one to show improvement.
As long as Oklahoma State is scoring, similar to what Texas Tech did earlier this year, the cover will be waiting for the Cowboys.
The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, but 2-5 ATS in their last seven following an ATS win. The Sooners are also 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 1-5 ATS in their last six following an ATS win. The over is 3-0-1 in the last Four meetings between these schools with the road team covering in the last Four. Oklahoma is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
Our Pick – Oklahoma State +11.5