Texas – Oklahoma College Football Pick with Analysis

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Big 12

College Football Pick


The Red River Showdown is here, but there’s not much hype for it. Oklahoma is coming off a win, but is already out of the playoff picture with two losses, while Texas has lost its last two Games. At the least, there will be plenty of points with the Sooners opening as a -10.5 point favorite at 5 Dimes Sportsbook.

Before the season, this Game was supposed to mean something, but that’s down the drain. When these teams met last year, the Longhorns walked away with a surprising 24-17 win, holding a high-powered Oklahoma attack down. While it’s hard to see that happening again, Texas will probably have the same kind of success on the ground when they ran for 313 yards in the win.

Neither team has been too impressive defensively, namely the Longhorns who have allowed 99 points in the last two Games. Oklahoma can’t be removed from that conversation, though, as they just gave up 46 points to TCU, although most of that was done through the air.

Texas can Scorepoints, but that’s usually on the ground with freshman quarterback Shane Buechele only throwing two touchdowns and two interceptions in the last two Games for 435 yards. If the Longhorns can’t get the same kind of running Game going as a year ago, they’ll have some trouble. But so far, that hasn’t been an issue with D’Onta Foreman and Chris Warren III both having success through the early Games. And considering the Longhorns did just fine running the ball last year, they could do the same again.

As for the other end, it’s hard to see Texas holding Oklahoma down to 17 points again. The Longhorns have been miserable defensively and coming off a 52-point outing, the Sooners will have plenty of confidence.

The downgrade for OU this season has been quarterback Baker Mayfield, who isn’t posting the same type of numbers as a year ago. He’s been good, but not at the levels of 2015. But that probably won’t matter too much in this Game if the Sooners can match their running total from the win at TCU. Joe Mixon, Samaje Perine and Mayfield combined for 256 rushing yards and five touchdowns. However, it has to be noted that Texas held OU to just 67 rushing yards in last year’s meeting.

If the Longhorns can stop the running Game just a little bit, they could have some success at stopping the Sooners. Then again, they haven’t really displayed potential to stop any offense in the country yet, so that may not be something to count on.

With neither defense playing well, there should be points on both sides of the field no matter what happens. Mayfield can still Scorewith his arm and Buechle has done enough to keep the offense going even when they’re struggling.

The Longhorns are 5-2 ATS in their last seven neutral site Games, but 1-5 ATS in their last six on grass. The Sooners are 7-1 ATS in their last eight Conference Games, but 1-4 ATS in their last five overall.

Our Pick – In a Game featuring two of the worst defenses of 2016, along with both having a good offense, we prefer to be taking points. Texas +11