College Football Pick
By Jason Green
In their last Game Houston lost their first Game of the season and that dropped them out of the top 10 and dashed their BCS title hopes not being from a major conference. They are back at home and big betting favorites facing a Tulsa team that has won 3 in a row.
While Tulsa has a balanced offense their defense only ranks 94th in the nation giving up an average of 32 ppg. The Golden Hurricanes have not played a solid team in their 3-Game win streak, but they have put up at least 43 points in each of those contests.
In the last 5 Games between these AAC teams the road team has covered the spread every time.
Tulsa had a scare in their last Game beating SMU 43-40 in OT where they failed to cover as a big 15-point home favorite. Houston was upset in their last Game falling to Navy 46-40 where they failed to cover as a 15.5-point road favorite.
Houston’s defense had been solid in winning their first 5 Games of the season, but in the loss to Navy they have up over 300 rushing yards and they also shot themselves in the foot with 3 turnovers.
Houston had over 100 more yards of total offense facing Navy with QB Greg Ward Jr. lighting it up passing for 359 yards with 3 TD, but he was also picked off twice. He also rushed for 94 yards in the Game with a fumble, so he was responsible for all the turnovers. He is the lead rusher of the team and with him under center and solid WR corps the Cougars rank 13th in the nation putting up 42.5 ppg.
Tulsa’s defense, which ranks 70th against the pass and 60th against the run, will really have their hands full in this Game.
The Golden Hurricane are led by their rushing offense with lead RB D’Angelo Brewer, who already has 706 yards on the season and in the last 2 Games he has exploded for over 420 yards on the ground. Houston had totally dominated their opponents in their run Game before getting blown up on the ground in the loss to Navy and they still rank 4th in the nation in run defense.
Brewer and James Flanders, who has rushed for over 100 yards in the last 2 Games, cannot move the chains on the ground they may be in trouble. Dane Evans is a good QB, but he has 7 INT with 4 coming in their lone loss, which was to Ohio State in a blowout. He will face a solid Houston pass D that ranks 24th in the nation.
Tulsa is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road Games and in their last 10 Games the poste total has gone Over 8 times.
Houston is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home Games, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Games overall, and in their last 8 Games at home the total has gone Under 6 times.
Jason’s Pick: Houston will take their frustrations out on Tulsa in this Game, as they will easily win and cover the spread. Look for the Cougars to light up the scoreboard handing the Golden Hurricane their first AAC loss of the season.