Auburn vs. Alabama College Football Pick ATS Trends

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Auburn

vs.

Alabama

ATS Trends

Free Pick

11/24/18

Auburn didn’t fully derail Alabama last season, but this is still a revenge Game after the Tigers dealt the Crimson Tide their only loss of the 2017/18 campaign. Unfortunately, Auburn isn’t the same team this year and already has Four losses. That’s why the Tide opened as large -24.5 point home favorites with an over/under of 53 for the Iron Bowl as seen at YOUWAGER Sportsbook.

Last year’s matchup was defined by two different quarterbacks as Jarrett Stidham outplayed Jalen Hurts in a 26-14 win. Things could easily go the opposite in this meeting as Auburn isn’t as good and has already lost road Games to Miss. State (23-9) and Georgia (27-10), teams worse or at the same level as Alabama. Still, a 24-point spread is a lot even though the Tide beat Miss. State 24-0 a couple weeks ago and at LSU 29-0 before that.

The Tide’s defense is going to be an issue for Stidham and company, which haven’t scored against good defenses. Alabama has controlled pretty much every opponent and is allowing only 13.1 points per Game. Compared to last year, Stidham’s numbers have dropped across the board with only 7.21 yards per attempt and 12 touchdowns. It’s not like he was an NFL quarterback to begin with, but he’s been less effective this season and it doesn’t help the ground Game is averaging 4.4 yards per carry. Whether it’s Jatarvious Whitlow or Kam Martin, neither one has done much in recent Conference Games. Whitlow leads the team in rushing yet managed a combined 42 yards against A&M and Georgia. Reaching 10 points could be the goal for Auburn and that may be enough to cover as long as its defense can somewhat stifle Tua Tagovailoa and company.

And while Auburn’s defense is its strong suit, allowing 16.6 points per Game, it’s hard to see this group doing enough to stop the Tide’s offense. Tagovailoa had his worst Game of the season in the win against Mississippi State yet the offense still scored 24 points. He’s been excellent with 12.09 yards per attempt to go with 31 touchdowns and only two interceptions. But if you try to stop Tagovailoa, then Alabama can just hand it off to Damien and Najee Harris, the two running backs averaging more than six yards per carry. since Auburn couldn’t stop offenses from Georgia and Tennessee, it’s hard to see them doing much against Tagovailoa and the Alabama offense that’s scoring close to 50 points per Game. 

This Game could go similar to the 2016 meeting when Alabama was favored by 20.5 points and ended up winning 30-12. The difference is that Auburn had Four field goals because of turnovers by Jalen Hurts, something that Tagovailoa hasn’t done this season. Without turnovers, Auburn is going to struggle putting points on the board, something both LSU and Mississippi State couldn’t do in recent matchups.  

The Tigers are 2-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 1-6 ATS in their last seven Games following a straight-up win. The Crimson Tide have covered their last Four Conference Games. There aren’t many relevant trends between these teams, but the under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings played in Tuscaloosa.

Our Pick – Auburn +24.5 and UNDER 53