It’s been a while since Texas was relevant on a national level, but that’s changed in the last month even though this team lost to Maryland in the opener. The Longhorns are ranked in the AP Poll Top 10 and are coming off a huge win over Oklahoma. Playing at home against an improved Baylor team, the Longhorns were -14.5 point favorites with an over/under of 61.5 as of Tuesday at YOUWAGER Sportsbook.
When neither one of these teams was good last year, Texas romped Baylor 38-7 on the back of its running Game that went for 171 yards. Unfortunately for the Bears, that may happen again because they’re allowing close to 200 rushing yards per contest on 6.1 yards per carry. Those aren’t good numbers and while they’re improved from last year, that’s the main reason they’ve given up at least 40 points to the two legit offenses they’ve faced (Duke, Oklahoma).
There’s a chance Texas rolls to 40 points, though it’s still not a guarantee considering the group that scored 48 on Oklahoma last week, only had 19 against K State the week before. The talent is there, but the Longhorns are still inconsistent and their 3.9 yards per carry as a team is another worry even if this is a good matchup. At the least, Keaontay Ingram has looked good and is the top running back with 6.2 yards per carry. He could be in for a huge Game and the same goes for quarterback Sam Ehlinger, who had five total touchdowns against the Sooners and could be in for a similar outing if this doesn’t become a let down Game for Texas. Still, it’s hard to see Baylor keeping this offense in check after giving up 34 points to a bad K State offense last week.
In order to cover, the Bears may need to Scoreanother 30 points and that’s the main reason they have a chance to cover. The Texas defense has been good this season, but points can be scored against them and Oklahoma showed that. Of course, Baylor isn’t Oklahoma, though there are pieces that should move the ball. Unlike last year’s matchup when Baylor managed just 31 rushing yards, this team has running backs that can move the chains in JaMycal Hasty and John Lovett, both with at least 5.3 yards per carry. Throw in improved quarterback Charlie Brewer and that’s another element to the offense Baylor didn’t have last season. While he’s not a complete Game breaker, he’s been able to lead this offense to 36.2 points per Game with the help of top receivers Jalen Hurd and Denzel Mims. This is an obvious let down situation for Texas and if the defense doesn’t stay on its Game, Baylor should move the ball enough to put points on the board.
The Bears are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six overall and 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 road Games. The Longhorns are 8-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and that’s their only relevant trend. The under has hit in the last five meetings between these schools and Baylor is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings played at Texas.
Our Pick – Texas -14 and OVER 61