Duke
at
Clemson
ATS Trends
CFB Pick
11/17/18
Clemson locked up the ACC Atlantic last week and only has two more home Games before it can finish the regular season undefeated. Duke is no longer in the running for the Coastal division, but it’s still a team that can put up a good fight. Of course, the Tigers are better than anyone Duke has faced and they were -28 point home favorites with an over/under of 57.5 as of Tuesday at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
Clemson was slowed down at Boston College last weekend and still went on to win 27-7. It’s been on fire since escaping against Syracuse a couple months ago and there’s little reason to bet against them against anyone in the ACC. The Blue Devils have been all over the place from winning at Northwestern and Baylor early in the season to losing at home to VT and Virginia in Conference play. They’ve returned to form in recent wins, taking down Miami on the road, but stopping Clemson is a completely different task.
The Tigers were held to 27 points last weekend, but had scored at least 41 points in their prior Four Games. Unfortunately for the Blue Devils, their defense has been subpar, allowing 406 yards per Game and already gave up 54 points to Pitt. This is a perfect spot for Trevor LAwrence to rebound after a somewhat down performance at BC. He’s still been great with 19 touchdowns and only Four interceptions, but then again, he may not be needed since Duke is giving up 212 rushing yards per Game. That’s where running back Travis Etienne comes in as he’s averaging 8.5 yards per carry and has 15 touchdowns. As a team, Clemson is averaging 6.7 yards per carry and if Duke doesn’t pick up its defense, this result could look similar to the FSU and Louisville Games.
The problem for Duke is that Clemson’s defense is destroying everyone and hasn’t given up more than 16 points in its last five Games. If Duke doesn’t reach 16 points, that means Clemson only needs 44 points to cover. The Blue Devils have a solid offense, but they’ve struggled against better defenses and that’s exactly what Clemson brings to the table allowing 12.7 points per Game with the best defensive line in the country.
Quarterback Daniel Jones has been serviceable, but most of his positive numbers have come against bad defenses. At Miami a couple weeks ago, he managed just 130 yards and no touchdowns. If that happens in this Game, Duke will struggle to reach 10 points. Running back Deon Jackson is averaging 100 yards in the last three Games, but it’s hard to see him reaching that total in this matchup. And when the running Game has struggled, this offense hasn’t moved the ball as Jackson ran for 34 yards against VT and 17 against Virginia.
If Clemson plays like it has been, this could be another blowout. Duke’s offense will struggle to move the ball and its defense isn’t good enough to slow down Clemson. The Blue Devils are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road Games and 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Tigers have covered in their last five Games (depending on what spread you use for the BC Game) and are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 at home vs. a team with a winning road record. The home team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these schools, but these teams haven’t played since 2012.
Duke ATS Trends
Duke is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road Games vs a team with a winning home record
Duke is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Games following a win
Duke is 6-2 ATS vs a team with a winning record
Duke is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road Games
Duke is 25-9-1 ATS in their last 35 Games as an underdog
Duke is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Games as an underdog of 10 5 or more
Duke is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Games overall
Duke is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Games as a road underdog
Duke is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Games on grass
Clemson ATS Trends
Clemson is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Conference Games
Clemson is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Games as a favorite
Clemson is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Games following a win
Clemson is 4-0 ATS vs a team with a winning record
Clemson is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Games in November
Clemson is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Games overall
Clemson is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Games as a favorite of 10 5 or more
Clemson is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games on grass
Our Pick – OVER 57.5