Georgia
vs.
LSU
College Football
Pick
10/13/18
LSU would’ve liked to win the Game at Florida last weekend, but now it has to go into matchups against Georgia, Miss. State and Alabama already with a loss. And even at home, not many trust LSU to pull an upset as the Bulldogs were early -7 point road favorites with an over/under of 50.5 as of Tuesday at YOUWAGER Sportsbook.
Georgia has yet to be challenged this year and this may be its hardest Game to date. It hasn’t faced much resistance, but that could change in this one if LSU’s defense can step up and limit the Georgia rushing attack. That’s not an impossible task, but coming off a Game in which the Tigers gave up 215 rushing yards to Florida, it may not be possible to stop whatever Georgia puts on the field.
The Bulldogs are running through everyone and haven’t asked quarterback Jake Fromm to do too much, though he still has 12 touchdowns and 10.53 yards per attempt. He could be forced into more action this Game or he may not since Elijah Holyfield and D’Andre Swift have had no trouble running the ball, similar to last season’s backfield. As a team, the Bulldogs are averaging 6.0 yards per carry and that includes sacks. If LSU wants a chance in this Game, it has to limit those guys on the ground.
But while the Tigers may able to contain Georgia, there’s still a question about the offense because Joe Burrow simply isn’t getting the job done against good defenses. He completed just 44.1% of his passes in the 22-21 win against Auburn and then threw two picks on 19-of-34 passing against Florida last weekend. To have a chance, LSU will need to run the ball and that’s a hard thing to bet on. Nick Brossette is having a good season with 576 yards and eight touchdowns, but he’s also only at 4.9 yards per carry and LSU is at 4.4 ypc as a team. Those are good numbers, but even when they ran for 180 against Florida, it still wasn’t enough to crack 20 points. against Auburn, LSU won because of turnovers as it only managed 2.9 yards per carry. There could be holes against this Georgia defense, but will there be enough to bet on LSU?
These teams haven’t played since 2013 so there’s little to take away from previous matchups. Georgia has turned into a powerhouse under Kirby Smart and it’ll be tough to bet against them until that changes. The Bulldogs have scored at least 38 points in every Game this year and if that happens again, LSU would need 30 for it to cover and that’s a long shot with Burrow at quarterback.
The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road Games. The Tigers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine Conference Games and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 overall. The over has hit in six of the last seven meetings between these schools, though there’s little to put in those previous matchups since they haven’t played in five years.
Our Pick – LSU +7