11/10/18
Oklahoma isn’t making things look easy, but it still has a legit chance to make the College Football Playoff if it wins out. The problem is that its Schedule could include a trip to West Virginia and then another meeting against the Mountaineers or Longhorns in the Big 12 title Game. Oklahoma State is completely out of the picture, though it still has talent, as seen in its win against Texas a couple weeks ago. The Sooners were still -20 point home favorites with an over/under of 76.5 as of Wednesday at YOUWAGER Sportsbook.
Conveniently, it was the same over/under between these teams last year and it ended up surpassing that number by a few touchdowns in a 62-52 Oklahoma win, though if that happens again, OK State would cover. The problem is that OK State’s offense may not be built to Scoremore than 50 points as it hasn’t done so in Conference play yet. Mason Rudolph and Justice Hill did whatever they wanted in last year’s meeting, but Taylor Cornelius just hasn’t been as explosive at quarterback.
Cornelius has been solid, but is completing only 60 percent of his passes for 8.68 yards per attempt and 20 touchdowns. He’s been good in only one road Game and that came against Kansas, while he managed the offense to 12 points at K State. Hill is averaging more yards per carry than last year, but he isn’t getting as many touches because the Cowboys haven’t often had a lead. Oklahoma’s defense may be the biggest question because it’s been all over the place, no matter who the coordinator is. The Sooners gave up 46 points at Texas Tech last weekend, but just 14 at home against K State before that. There is a route in which Oklahoma’s defense can limit OK State to 20 points and then Kyler Murray goes off for another 50.
Murray has been everything Oklahoma fans hoped he would be, completing 70 percent of his passes for 12.34 yards per attempt and 31 touchdowns. It’s been almost too easy for him, throwing for at least three touchdowns in every Game but the FAU beat down in the opener. Throw in 574 rushing yards and seven touchdowns and there’s no reason to think OK State’s defense can stop him, especially after it allowed 48 points to Iowa State earlier in the season. Trey Sermon (722 yards, 6.3 ypc) has been great as the team’s leading running back after Rodney Anderson went down early in the season with injury. Overall, the Sooners are averaging 6.7 yards per carry.
All signs point to another 50-point outing for the Oklahoma offense and that means OK State has to reach at least 30. That’s more than possible, but it’s not a given, especially if OU goes up early and Cornelius is forced to throw too much.
The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five Games following an ATS loss, but 2-5 ATS in their last seven road Games. The Sooners are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home Games, but 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these schools, but the Pokes are 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings played in Oklahoma. The over is 4-1-1 in the last six between them.
Additional ATS Trends
Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home Games.
Oklahoma is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 Games as a home favorite of 10.5+
Oklahoma is 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Oklahoma is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Games in November.
Oklahoma is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 Games as a home favorite.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Conference Games.
Oklahoma State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Games in November.
Oklahoma State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road Games.
Oklahoma State is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Games as an underdog.
Oklahoma State is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 Games as a road underdog of 10.5+
Our Pick Oklahoma State +20