Oklahoma State
at
TCU
College Football
Pick
ATS Trends
11/24/18
This Game has no implications in the Big 12 title race, only that the loser would be in a tie for second-to-last in the conference. Other than that, TCU is still playing for its bowl life, while OK State got there last weekend in its upset of West Virginia. Unsurprisingly, the Cowboys are -5 point road favorites with an over/under of 56.5 points as of Tuesday at betonline Sportsbook.
It’s been a trying season for both teams and that makes it hard to look at last year’s matchup in which TCU won 44-31. It was a much different time as TCU made it to the Conference title Game and OK State only had three total losses. It’s been far from the same for these teams and while the Cowboys just beat West Virginia, this is the same team that lost on the road to K State (31-12) and Baylor (35-31).
Of course, the Horned Frogs haven’t been much better as they’re the only Big 12 team to lose to Kansas. On the positive, they’ve been better at home, with the Oklahoma loss being the only one that got out of hand. The other three were decided by three points or less and two of them were wins (ISU, KSU). The problem is that OK State’s offense has been awesome and winning with defense may not work in this matchup. TCU’s defense may be one of the better ones in the conference, but that doesn’t say much for a group that already gave up 47 points to West Virginia and 27 to Kansas.
OK State quarterback Taylor Cornelius is on a roll with eight passing touchdowns in the last two Games and 28 for the season. Maybe more exciting is that his running ability came out against WVU and was the key difference as he ran for 106 yards. Along with top wide out Tylan Wallace (1,344 yards, 11 TDs), this offense has continued its elite levels. Sure, it’s had some duds, but it’s hard to see that happening given how it’s looked in recent weeks. The running Game has worked as well with Chuba Hubbard, who has hit 100 yards in each of the last two.
On the other end, it may not matter how bad OK State’s defense is because TCU hasn’t scored more than 30 points in Conference play and hasn’t topped 16 in its last three Games. Jalen Raegor made some great plays against Baylor, but the receiver can only do so much for this offense as seen in his 970 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. Quarterback has been a black hole for TCU this season and this Game’s starter will likely be the team’s third option after Michael Collins was injured last Game. Fifth-year senior Grayson Muehlstein made his first career appearance against Baylor and while he was competent, completing 11-of-15 passes for 137 yards, it’ll be hard to put money him, especially with a rushing Game that’s gaining less than Four yards per carry.
If this Game played out according to the numbers, OK State would have an easy time. But nothing has been easy for the Pokes on the road and then there’s the unpredictability and possible feel-good story of Muehlstein, who could lead TCU to a bowl Game.
The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road Games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Horned Frogs are just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 home Games and a miserable 1-9 ATS in their last 10 Conference Games. The most relevant trend between these teams is that OK State is 4-2 ATS in the last six Games, the same 4-2 mark as the under.
Our Pick – TCU +5