At one point this looked like a huge Game for Oklahoma, but that sentiment is gone, as TCU has dropped down the standings already with two Conference losses. That said, the spread is fairly small with the Sooners opening as a -7.5 point road favorite at YOUWAGER sportsbook.
Oklahoma dominated this matchup last year, winning both Games by at least 18 points, but when these teams last met at TCU in 2016, the Horned Frogs put up a fight, though still lost 52-46. The question is whether TCU’s defense will have enough to stay competitive, as it’s been a mixed bag early in the season. They struggled against both Ohio State and Texas, but held Texas Tech to 17 points last week, albeit in a loss. To cover, TCU will likely need to hold OU to 30 points or less.
That should be possible given TCU’s defensive numbers, but playing Oklahoma is never easy and they found that out last year. It also doesn’t help that Oklahoma’s offense under Kyler Murray is as good as last year’s group. In just six Games he already has 21 passing touchdowns on 71.1% completion and 13.07 yards per attempt. And of course he leads the team in rushing with 377 yards and another five touchdowns. Trey Sermon and the other running backs are serviceable, but Murray has been doing fine holding onto the ball on 6.6 yards per carry. TCU may put up a fight against this offense, but like in the loss to Ohio State, it probably won’t have enough to hold down the Sooners completely.
The best way to limit OU’s offense is to hold onto the ball as long as possible, which is what Army did a month ago in a 28-21 loss. The problem for TCU is that it doesn’t exactly have a great offense, failing to Scoremore than 16 points in the last three Games and even though Oklahoma has a new defensive coordinator, that won’t make TCU elite.
Quarterback Shawn Robinson hasn’t done enough for the Frogs, not only with eight interceptions in six Games, but also just 6.70 yards per attempt. Those numbers aren’t going to cut it and that’s why this offense scored 14 points against a bad Texas Tech defense. They’ll give the ball to Darius Anderson and Sewo Olonilua early, but it’s hard to rely on those guys to get the job done the entire way. TCU hasn’t been terrible running the ball with 4.6 yards per carry as a team, yet that doesn’t matter when you can’t consistently move the chains. It also doesn’t help that 93 of Anderson’s 355 yards came on one carry.
The Sooners are 1-5 ATS in their last six road Games and 1-4 ATS in their last five overall. The Horned Frogs are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 at home and 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between these schools and Oklahoma has covered the last three.
Our Pick – TCU +8