Stanford
vs.
Notre Dame
College Football
Pick
9/29/18
Even though this is a home Game, it may be Notre Dame’s most difficult contest of the season. Stanford still has a few big Games on the Schedule in the Pac-12 and it could have more importance for the Irish if they want to reach the College Football Playoff. The home team was an early favorite of -5 points with an over/under of 54 as seen at YOUWAGER Sportsbook.
Notre Dame’s Schedule has turned extremely favorable with teams like Virginia Tech, FSU and USC all falling off in the early season. That doesn’t mean they’ll win every Game, but if they keep winning, will likely be favored the rest of the way. Stanford has won the last three meetings between these teams, taking it 38-20 last year despite getting outgained by 87 yards. The difference was that Stanford didn’t turn the ball over (ND had three) and had slightly more success in the ground Game.
The most interesting question entering this Game is who will start at quarterback for Notre Dame after Ian Book had five total touchdowns and threw for 325 yards against Wake Forest. That performance will be hard to replicate and while it was against a bad defense, Brandon Wimbush was never close to producing numbers like that with one touchdown and Four interceptions in three starts. The problem is that Stanford has a much better defense so if Book starts, this Game will be a bit different. On the positive side, the Cardinal needed overtime to win at Oregon and now travel again, this time further away. To win this Game and cover Notre Dame not only needs Book (or Wimbush) to not turn it over, but also move it consistently on the ground between Tony Jones and Jafar Armstrong.
After Oregon moved the ball with ease in the first half against Stanford, adjustments were made and the Ducks couldn’t get anything going in the second half. This one could be a similar battle and it’ll be interesting to see what Notre Dame’s defense can do against Bryce Love after he ran for 125 in this matchup last year.
The difference is that Love is having a troubled season, only with 254 yards on 4.3 yards per carry. Teams are stacking the box against him and that’s forced K.J. Costello to do more and so far that’s been enough as he has 9.26 yards per attempt and 10 touchdowns. The Irish have been solid defensively, but gave up 259 rushing yards to Wake last week and none of the offenses they’ve faced have been as balanced as what Stanford puts on the field. The Irish could stack the box against Love, but that would leave room for Costello to repeat his 327-yards, 3-TD performance he had against Oregon.
This Game may be bigger for Notre Dame at the end of the day, but being favored by more than three points puts a wrinkle into betting this Game considering the Cardinal have won the last three and covered in the last two as small underdogs. The Cardinal are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, while the Fighting Irish are 5-1 ATS in their last six home Games vs. a team with a winning road record, yet 1-4 ATS in their last five home overall. The underdog has covered in the last six meetings and the under is 7-1 in the last eight matchups between these schools.
Our Pick – Stanford +5.5