Texas A&M
at
Auburn
NCAAF
Expert Pick
Betting Line
11/3/18
At one point, this could’ve been a huge matchup in the SEC West, but those days are gone with both teams already having three losses. Auburn already lost at home, while Texas A&M is coming off a loss at Mississippi State, something Auburn did a few weeks ago. The Tigers, playing at home, were -4 point favorites with an over/under of 47.5 as of Monday at Youwager Sportsbook.
It’s been hard to get a good read on both of these teams for most of the season. Texas A&M’s only early losses were to Clemson and Alabama, but then it didn’t win any of its next three by more than seven points and just lost 28-13 at Mississippi State. Auburn beat Washington in the opener, which no longer looks relevant, and fell to LSU in a one-point loss. Then the losing started against Miss. State and Tennessee before coming around and beating a suspect Ole Miss squad. There’s a reason this spread was sitting around five points because there isn’t much known about either of these teams. For the most part, they’re both playing in lower scoring Games led by solid defenses, but that also means the offenses are disappointing.
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Starting with the Aggies, it’s been an up and down season for quarterback Kellen Mond, who threw three touchdowns against Clemson, but hasn’t done much since and has thrown six interceptions with only five touchdowns in the last five Games. It doesn’t help that Trayveon Williams hasn’t gotten much going the last two Games with just 104 rushing yards on 29 carries. since Auburn’s best unit may be its defensive front that’s allowing 3.3 yards per carry, that’s the first area of concern for the road team. If Williams and Mond struggle to find room on the ground, that puts them in an immediate hole and forces Mond into throwing the ball more than Jimbo Fisher wants.
It’s a similar situation on the other end because Jarrett Stidham’s numbers are down across the board with just eight touchdowns and Four interceptions. He’s at just 7.29 yards per attempt and completing 60.4% of his passes. Even against a bad Ole Miss defense, he couldn’t figure things out. That’s where JaTarvious Whitlow comes in after rushing for 170 yards against the Rebels and leading the team with 626 yards on 6.3 yards per carry. Auburn will try and feed him as much as possible, but again, Texas A&M excels against the running Game and allows only 3.3 yards per carry and 86 yards per Game.
When these teams met last year, it randomly turned into a track meet as both moved the ball fine in a 42-27 road win for Auburn. But if this one goes according to the numbers, it should be a defensive battle with both teams struggling to find the end zone.
The Aggies are 7-2 ATS in their last nine overall and 7-1 ATS in their last eight on grass. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home Games and 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The road team has covered in the last six meetings between these schools and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five.
Our Pick – Texas A&M +4