Pick with Betting Odds
Texas got the week off, but there’s still a big question going into this Game as quarterback Sam Ehlinger was iffy to play earlier in the week. This a spot the Longhorns can win without him, but as seen in the Baylor Game, it won’t be easy. They were -3.5 point road favorites with an over/under of 60 as of Tuesday at YOUWAGER Sportsbook.
Without Ehlinger, the offense couldn’t get anything going against Baylor in a 23-17 win as Shane Buechele managed just 184 passing yards on 34 pass attempts. When these teams met last year, it was a surprising defensive battle that OK State won in overtime 13-10 and it’s more than possible this one could go the same way.
The Cowboys are averaging almost 40 points per Game, yet have had some duds against bad defenses, scoring 17 points against Texas Tech and 12 against K State. With Texas having one of the better defenses in the conference, it’s a wonder what the Pokes will do. Quarterback Taylor Cornelius is having a good season, yet 13 of his 16 touchdowns have come in three Games, two against Missouri State and Kansas. That stat is a clear issue in this Game, especially if Justice Hill can’t find room on the ground and he’s managed just 107 rushing yards in the last two contests combined.
But on the road and under the lights, this is a big test for a Texas team that hasn’t won any of its last three Games by more than six points and it gets even tougher if Ehlinger can’t play. At the least, Buechele has experience so that should help, though Texas will likely try and lean on the ground Game if possible. That didn’t work in last year’s matchup, as the Longhorns had just 42 rushing yards on 33 carries (sacks included). OK State is allowing only 3.6 yards per carry, yet just gave up 181 yards and Four touchdowns to KSU’s running back. When healthy, freshman Keaontay Ingram has been UT’s best running back, averaging 6.1 ypc and had a season-high 110 yards against Baylor last week. If Buechele is under center, Ingram could again see close to 20 carries and that could be enough in this Game.
Yet while the numbers point to Texas because of its better defense, playing on national TV in a night Game is never easy, especially without your regular starting quarterback. Even with a loss, the Longhorns still have a chance to win the Big 12, but their hopes of the College Football Playoff would be completely gone.
The Longhorns are 11-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, while the Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a bye, but 2-6 ATS in their last eight Conference Games. The favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings between these schools, the road team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 and the under is 4-1 in the last five.
Our Pick – Texas -3.5