Texas
at
Texas Tech
NCAAF Pick
ATS Trends
11/11/18
There was a time when Texas was in the CFP conversation, but those days are long gone after back-to-back losses. Texas Tech has also lost its last two, but continues to compete no matter the opponents. That’s the main reason the Longhorns were just -1.5 point road favorites with an over/under of 63.5 as of Wednesday at YOUWAGER Sportsbook.
There are a number of reasons this spread is so low. For starters, Tech has won two of the last three in this meeting, including 27-23 on the road last year. Also, Texas isn’t putting anyone away, having lost its last two by a combined Four points, but having won its prior three by a combined 14 points. The same goes for the Red Raiders, who already have road wins at OK State and TCU and stayed competitive against Oklahoma last weekend. Due to a lack of defense and high-powered offenses, this Game should be back-and-forth the entire way, similar to the last three meetings with those all being decided by eight points or less.
Texas was thought to have one of the better defenses in the Big 12, but those thoughts are gone after giving up 80 points in the last two Games. The Longhorns are giving up 256 passing yards per Game and that plays into the hands of Texas Tech freshman quarterback Alan Bowman. He doesn’t have great numbers, but he’s still completing 69.4% of his passes and would likely have more than 17 touchdowns if it weren’t for a small injury that kept him out for just over a Game. That said, Jett Duffey will likely see time either way since he’s more of a dual-threat quarterback that gave problems to Oklahoma’s defense en route to a few late touchdowns. since they don’t get much out of their running backs, Duffey has added another element to the offense and that’s something Texas will have to plan for.
Of course, the defensive side is still a major issue for the Red Raiders allowing 30.7 points and 453 yards per Game. It’d be surprising if Texas doesn’t reach 40 points, while the same can’t be said for Tech and that’s the main reason to back the road team.
Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger still only has two interceptions while throwing for 16 touchdowns and running for nine more on 3.4 yards per carry (sacks included). Ehlinger should post huge numbers unless Tech’s defense figures things out in the matter of a week. It also helps that Tech can’t stop the running Game and if Texas gets Keaontay Ingram and Tre Watson going out of the backfield, that would help the defense gain its breath against the Air Raid.
The Longhorns are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight following a straight-up loss, but 1-3-1 ATS in their last five Games overall. The Red Raiders are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last five at home. The under has hit in the last Four meetings between these schools played at Texas Tech and Texas has covered all of them.
Additional ATS Trends
Texas
Texas is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Games as a favorite.
Texas is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 Games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Texas is 11-5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Texas is 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 Games in November.
Texas is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Games as a road favorite.
Texas Tech
Texas Tech is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Conference Games.
Texas Tech is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Games as a favorite.
Texas Tech is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home Games.
Texas Tech is 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Texas Tech is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Texas Tech is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 Games in November.
Texas Tech is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Games overall.
Texas Tech is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Games on turf.
Our Pick – Texas Tech +2