It’s been a tough return to college football for Chip Kelly as he still doesn’t have a win with UCLA, most recently falling by 22 points at Colorado. This matchup doesn’t look any better with Washington still one of the favorites to win the Pac-12. The Huskies were -21 point road favorites with an over/under of 50.5 as of Wednesday at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
This Game is at home for the Bruins, but that doesn’t mean much when they’ve already lost at home 26-17 to Cincy and 38-14 to Fresno State. The season doesn’t look to be getting any better and it doesn’t help that Kelly doesn’t know who his starting quarterback will be with Wilton Speight cleared from injury. Dorian Thompson-Robinson hasn’t done much in his few Games, though it’s not like Speight is a huge upgrade. In Speight’s six possessions against Cincinnati, the offense never had more than 41 yards and he also threw an interception. against a Washington defense giving up a nation-best 11.6 points per Game, it’s hard to see the Bruins doing much better. The Huskies should bottle up anything UCLA tries to do whether that’s on the ground with one of their Four RBs that has at least 23 carries or through the air with one of their iffy quarterbacks. Even on the road, Washington has a huge edge and UCLA will struggle to reach 20 points.
For Washington cover, it will need to Scorearound 40 points against a defense allowing 37.8 points per Game. Considering the Bruins haven’t stopped teams with mediocre offenses, it’s hard to see them holding UW to less than 30. The Huskies are far from elite, but they’ve also played some stout defenses in Auburn, Utah and ASU. Jake Browning doesn’t have overwhelming numbers, yet he went 23-of-25 against BYU and the ground Game between Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed should be enough in this matchup. UCLA just gave up 209 rushing yards and let Colorado’s quarterback go 22-of-26 and there’s no reason Washington’s offense can’t post similar numbers.
The only way UCLA covers is if this Game goes nothing like the first month of the season because everything points to an easy win for Washington. Even when UCLA had Josh Rosen in this matchup last year, it still lost 44-23 as the Huskies ran for 333 yards and it’s mostly the same offense from that Game. UCLA’s defense hasn’t shown enough to put faith in them. The Bruins are a little better against the run this year, allowing 3.9 yards per carry, but that only goes so far and they’ve also allowed 15 rushing touchdowns, one of the worst numbers in the country.
The Huskies are still only 1-4 ATS in their last five road Games, though they’ve covered in their last Four against a team with a losing home record. The Bruins don’t have any positive trends, failing to cover in their last Four at home and 1-5 ATS in their last six overall.
Our Pick – Washington -21