Arizona at Oregon Free PAC 12 Football Pick ATS – 11/16/19

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Oregon hasn’t lost since the opener and comes in ranked No. 6 in this week’s CFP rankings with a chance to get into the playoff. That may require a few more blowouts, including against Arizona, but it’s at least possible. The Ducks were -27 point home favorites with an over/under of 68.5 early in the week.

Last year’s result almost doesn’t make sense. Arizona oddly dominated late in the season in a 44-15 win. Justin Herbert averaged 3.9 yards per attempt and Oregon averaged 3.7 yards per carry. There’s a good chance the opposite happens in this matchup because of how much better Oregon is than most of the Pac-12.

Arizona has lost its last four, giving up at least 41 points in each, including 56 at home last game to Oregon State. The Wildcats have one of the worst defenses in the country and this matchup isn’t going to improve those numbers.

Herbert leads the way for Oregon, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt for 24 touchdowns and two interceptions. The loss of top receiver Jacob Breeland didn’t help, but he’s been spreading the ball around and Juwan Johnson had three touchdowns against USC last game. The ground game is just as potent between CJ Verdell and Travis Dye, who are both averaging at least 5.9 yards per carry.

Given recent results, it’d be disappointing if Oregon doesn’t reach 40 points or even 50. If it can get to 50, that means Arizona needs to surpass 20 points against one of the better defenses in the conference.

The WIldcats have been scoring, but some of that is because of opponent as Stanford and Oregon State have been bad all season. The Ducks are allowing 100.1 rushing yards and 15.8 points per contest.

While they’ve had some issues against better offenses of late, they controlled weaker offensive lines earlier in the season and that could be a problem for the road team.

The Wildcats are splitting reps between Kahlil Tate and Grant Gunnell and that’ll likely continue in this game. Tate is more electric because of his legs, but Gunnell is more efficient through the air with a 159.9 QB rating compared to 142.3 for Tate.

And while Tate was once the most exciting QB in the country, he’s failed to surpass three rushing yards in three of the last four games. The offense has had some success because J.J. Taylor and Gary Brightwell have been able to run the ball against bad defenses, but that’s not Oregon. 

The Ducks should dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and the result could be similar to their last win against the Trojans. USC jumped to a 10-0 lead in that game and then Oregon did what it wanted, scoring 56 points in the final three quarters.

Arizona has failed to cover its last four games, while Oregon is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games against a team with a losing road record. The under has hit in the last six meetings between these teams and the home team is 5-1 ATS in that period.

Our Pick – Oregon -27