Colorado State at Wyoming Free College Football Pick – 11/22/19

wyoming football pick
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This is the only Friday night game so there’s no way out of it if you want to bet on college football. Wyoming may not be known on a national scale, but it’s having a decent season despite losing its past two games. That’s why it opened as -7 point favorites against Colorado State.

The Cowboys have four losses and they all came on the road by a combined 15 points. Their three conference losses came against teams with a combined three MWC losses.

They’ve had their way at home against inferior competition and that’s what this game presents on the surface, However, dive into the numbers and Colorado State hasn’t been playing that bad, either, despite a 4-6 record.

Its three MWC losses were to teams with a combined four conference losses. Even better, its three MWC wins were all by double digits. So which is these teams is the better mediocre MWC squad?

The overall numbers point to Wyoming because CSU’s defense has had some issues, allowing more than 200 rushing yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry. That’s a major issue and something that’ll probably brew up in a difficult environment on a Friday night.

Wyoming can do one thing offensively and that’s run the ball, averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Running back Xazavian Valladay is averaging 4.8 ypc himself, and he’s also hit at least 114 rushing yards in each of the last four games.

Considering the competition, those are great numbers. The reason the Cowboys haven’t beaten any of the good teams is because former run-first quarterback Sean Chambers is out for the season and while Tyler Vander Waal is a better passer, that hasn’t mattered because he threw zero touchdowns and three picks last game.

Wyoming has a stout defense, allowing 2.8 yards per carry and less than 20 points per game, yet its secondary could be a problem, allowing 282.1 passing yards per contest.

That would be fine if it was playing itself, but Colorado State lives off the pass and that’s the only reason it’s averaging more than 30 points per game.

The Rams are also using their backup quarterback, but Patrick O’Brien has started most of the season and is averaging a solid 8.5 yards per attempt. Their ground game has decent numbers, but no one has really stepped up for running back Marvin Kinsey, who is no longer on the team. They’ve gone to a mix of guys the last couple games, but no one has stood out. 

These numbers match exactly how this game went a year ago. Wyoming won 34-21 on the road behind 291 rushing yards, while Colorado State managed 20 rushing yards and 333 yards through the air. That massive advantage in the trenches could lead to another double-digit win for the Cowboys.

Colorado State has covered its last four following an ATS loss and the under is 5-0 in its last five against a team with a winning record.

The under has hit in Wyoming’s last four overall. However, the over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these teams. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, but the Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in the last five.

Our Pick – Wyoming -7