Oklahoma at Baylor Free Big 12 Football Pick – 11/16/19

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baylor cfb free pick
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There’s still a long way to go in the Big 12 and anything can happen in the final few weeks. Baylor is undefeated, but it’s unlikely to finish that way, especially with Oklahoma up next. The Sooners were -10 point road favorites with an over/under of 67.5 as of Wednesday.

The winner in the last nine meetings between these teams has scored at least 41 points. Oklahoma has won the last four meetings, but it’s hard to compare recent matchups because Baylor is a different team these days. Just two years ago, the Bears were 1-11 and an afterthought. Now, they’re undefeated with hopes of reaching the Big 12 title game.

Somehow, Baylor has gotten here, escaping numerous games over the last couple months. It beat Iowa State by two points, Texas Tech by three, WVU by three and last week needed overtime at TCU.

a reason this spread is in favor of Oklahoma, though it’s not like things have been easy for them. The Sooners lost at K State a couple weeks ago and beat Iowa State by just one point last week. Their defense was thought to be good, but has given up 89 points the last two games. They don’t have a specific weakness, but that shouldn’t matter to Baylor.

Charlie Brewer is coming off an inefficient performance, but is averaging a solid 8.9 yards per attempt for 16 touchdowns and four picks. Baylor has been in close games because he’s not a quarterback who will pour the points on.

The other part is that the ground game isn’t putting up huge numbers. John Lovett and JaMycal Hasty are both averaging at least 5.8 yards per carry, but they don’t have a combined 1,000 rushing yards. Baylor has had some big games, but to have a chance in this one, Brewer and the running backs need to go off.

The Bears have been living off a respectable defense, allowing 19 points per game, but that may not be enough in this game. Oklahoma may have had some close games, yet the offense has still ripped to shreds every opposing defense.

The one worry is that Kansas State, the team with the second-best defense in the Big 12, held Oklahoma to just 23 points in the first three quarters and since Baylor is at home, there’s hope.

Jalen Hurts has monster numbers, averaging 13.3 yards per attempt for 24 touchdowns and four interceptions to go with 869 rushing yards and 15 more touchdowns on 7.0 yards per carry. Baylor has already had trouble containing Texas Tech and OK State, and this one won’t be easier.

Top wideouts CeeDee Lamb and Charleston Rambo are both averaging more than 20 yards per reception, while new starting running back Kennedy Brooks is averaging 8.2 yards per carry.

A lot of people will blindly take Oklahoma because Baylor looks like an overrated undefeated team. However, Baylor probably has the best defense Oklahoma has seen this season and that’s in addition to this being a night game in Waco. While the spread is at 10 points, it wouldn’t be surprising if it finished a one-score game.

Oklahoma is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five November games, while Baylor is 6-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record. The over is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these teams in Baylor and the road team is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 overall meetings.

Our Pick – Baylor +10