The Famous Idaho Potato Bowl will feature the 6-5 Tulane Green Wave going up against the 6-2 Nevada Wolfpack. Tulane opened up as as -3.5 point favorite and early money on Tulane has brought the number to -3 with a total of 55.5.
The early betting action so far has seen the majority of the tickets being written on Tulane yet the bigger money has come in on Nevada. That’s always an interesting dynamic and normally would have us looking real close at the Wolfpack.
But we’ve liked this Tulane team all year. They’ve managed to get 11 games in and have competed every time they have taken the field. They were overwhelmed twice, once against UCF and the other against Houston.
In both of those games, they played 3 quarters of even football but gave up 27 points to UCF in the 2nd quarter and 21 to Houston in the 3rd.
Nevada played a weaker schedule overall in their 8 games, but does own wins over Wyoming and San Diego State while falling to San Jose by 10.
Green Wave 14th in Nation in Rushing Differential
This game will come down to Tulane’s ability to run the ball and stop the run, vs. Nevada’s ability to throw the ball against a weak Tulane pass defense.
Tulane is 14th in the country in yards per rush attempt differential, gaining 5.1 yards per attempt while giving up just 3.3. Their weakness is against the pass where teams like UCF and SMU threw for 400+ yards.
Both teams figure to have some success offensively which should make for a highly entertaining football game on Tuesday afternoon (3:30 pm est).
Our model has Tulane on top by a margin of 8-12 points. We’re not as confident as our model here, but we’re going to side with a Tulane team we’ve been high on all year. The current number is -3 but if you wait, you’ll likely do better.
We’re also going to lean towards the over. Our number is right around the current total, however, bowl games like this tend to turn into score fests.
Tulane -3 or better
Tulane/Nevada OVER 55