BYU vs. Notre Dame CFB Pick with Analysis – 10-8

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byu vs. notre dame cfb pick
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BYU will play Notre Dame in Las Vegas this weekend in another marquee matchup on this weeks slate. The Irish are currently -3.5 point favorites with a total of 51 at GTBets.

The Irish come into this game at 2-2. They dropped their first two games to Ohio State and Marshall then won the next two over Cal and North Carolina. Not exactly impressive for a team that was supposed to compete for a playoff spot.

BYU isn’t turning many heads either. They started out hot out of the gate by blowing out South Florida and then beating a good Baylor team. But then they ran into a buzz saw in the Oregon Ducks and couldn’t keep up, losing 41-20. They’ve won their last two, but those wins came against Wyoming and Utah State. Yawn!

So somewhat similar seasons for these two teams thus far. Plenty of returning talent. Both off great seasons a year ago (11 and 10 wins) and both not living up to the high expectations of 2022.

These two haven’t met since 2013. Nonetheless, here is a quick look at their head to head meetings.

Head to Head

11/23/2013  B.Y.U.                   13  - 1.0  at Notre Dame               23
10/20/2012  B.Y.U.                   14  +13.0  at Notre Dame               17
10/22/2005  B.Y.U.                   23  +20.0  at Notre Dame               49
 9/ 4/2004  Notre Dame               17  - 3.0  at B.Y.U.                   20
11/15/2003  B.Y.U.                   14  + 7.5  at Notre Dame               33
10/15/1994  B.Y.U.                   21  +14.5  at Notre Dame               14
10/16/1993  Notre Dame               45  -17.0  at B.Y.U.                   20
10/24/1992  B.Y.U.                   16  +21.0  at Notre Dame               42
  
   average outcome:
     B.Y.U.                  17.6  Notre Dame              30.0
     margin =  12.38
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     B.Y.U.                  15.2  Notre Dame              26.3
     margin =  11.12
  
   average result when the home team is Notre Dame             
     B.Y.U.                  16.8  Notre Dame              29.7
     margin =  12.83
  
   average result when the home team is B.Y.U.                 
     Notre Dame              31.0  B.Y.U.                  20.0
     margin = -11.00
  
    40.00 % of games went Over
    50.00 % went Over at Notre Dame             
    (since        2003 )
  
   average total points per game =  47.63
   time-weighted average total   =  41.47
  
   the home team covered  62.50 % of the time
   the road team covered  37.50 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  0.00
  
   the favorite  covered  50.00 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  50.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -2.25
  
   the favorite won SU    62.50 % of the time
  
   B.Y.U.                  covered  37.50 % of the time
   Notre Dame              covered  62.50 % of the time
  
   Notre Dame              covered  66.67 % of the time at home
   Notre Dame              covered  60.00 % of the time as home favorites

Our model has the Irish winning by 6. So not much of an edge and we’d agree. We think this game is tight. It’s a game BYU can win.

BYU +3.5

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