BYU will play Notre Dame in Las Vegas this weekend in another marquee matchup on this weeks slate. The Irish are currently -3.5 point favorites with a total of 51 at GTBets.
The Irish come into this game at 2-2. They dropped their first two games to Ohio State and Marshall then won the next two over Cal and North Carolina. Not exactly impressive for a team that was supposed to compete for a playoff spot.
BYU isn’t turning many heads either. They started out hot out of the gate by blowing out South Florida and then beating a good Baylor team. But then they ran into a buzz saw in the Oregon Ducks and couldn’t keep up, losing 41-20. They’ve won their last two, but those wins came against Wyoming and Utah State. Yawn!
So somewhat similar seasons for these two teams thus far. Plenty of returning talent. Both off great seasons a year ago (11 and 10 wins) and both not living up to the high expectations of 2022.
These two haven’t met since 2013. Nonetheless, here is a quick look at their head to head meetings.
Head to Head
11/23/2013 B.Y.U. 13 - 1.0 at Notre Dame 23
10/20/2012 B.Y.U. 14 +13.0 at Notre Dame 17
10/22/2005 B.Y.U. 23 +20.0 at Notre Dame 49
9/ 4/2004 Notre Dame 17 - 3.0 at B.Y.U. 20
11/15/2003 B.Y.U. 14 + 7.5 at Notre Dame 33
10/15/1994 B.Y.U. 21 +14.5 at Notre Dame 14
10/16/1993 Notre Dame 45 -17.0 at B.Y.U. 20
10/24/1992 B.Y.U. 16 +21.0 at Notre Dame 42
average outcome:
B.Y.U. 17.6 Notre Dame 30.0
margin = 12.38
time-weighted average outcome:
B.Y.U. 15.2 Notre Dame 26.3
margin = 11.12
average result when the home team is Notre Dame
B.Y.U. 16.8 Notre Dame 29.7
margin = 12.83
average result when the home team is B.Y.U.
Notre Dame 31.0 B.Y.U. 20.0
margin = -11.00
40.00 % of games went Over
50.00 % went Over at Notre Dame
(since 2003 )
average total points per game = 47.63
time-weighted average total = 41.47
the home team covered 62.50 % of the time
the road team covered 37.50 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 0.00
the favorite covered 50.00 % of the time
the underdog covered 50.00 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -2.25
the favorite won SU 62.50 % of the time
B.Y.U. covered 37.50 % of the time
Notre Dame covered 62.50 % of the time
Notre Dame covered 66.67 % of the time at home
Notre Dame covered 60.00 % of the time as home favorites
Our model has the Irish winning by 6. So not much of an edge and we’d agree. We think this game is tight. It’s a game BYU can win.