Notre Dame and Navy will make the trip across the pond to open up the 2023 college football season in Ireland. The Irish opened as a 20.5 to 21 point favorite which is where the game still sits as of this writing. Kickoff is 2:30 pm est. and the current posted total is 49, down from an opener of 50.
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Here’s a look at the meetings between these two teams over the last decade.
head-to-head history (lined games): 11/12/2022 Notre Dame 35 -17.0 vs Navy 32 11/ 6/2021 Navy 6 +21.0 at Notre Dame 34 11/16/2019 Navy 20 + 7.0 at Notre Dame 52 10/27/2018 Notre Dame 44 -23.5 vs Navy 22 11/18/2017 Navy 17 +21.0 at Notre Dame 24 11/ 5/2016 Notre Dame 27 - 7.0 vs Navy 28 10/10/2015 Navy 24 +14.0 at Notre Dame 41 11/ 1/2014 Notre Dame 49 -14.5 ~@ Navy 39 11/ 2/2013 Navy 34 +14.5 at Notre Dame 38
If you applied this years line to the 9 games above Navy would be 6-3 against the number and 7 of the 9 games would have gone over the total. That would include last years 35-32 Irish win. In fact going back to 1990 Navy has been a 65% play against the number in this series.
Navy returns the bulk of it’s defense from a year ago while Notre Dame fields one of the most veteran rosters in the country, loaded with returning talent.
Sharps Like Notre Dame
With that in mind, it’s no surprise that several sharp college football minds have this game pegged as a Notre Dame blowout. In all likelihood this game closes Notre Dame -21+.
We’re going to wait for that late line move in this one and take the extra bonus points with Navy +21 or more.
Both teams have had months to prepare for this game. The Irish started slow last season dropping their first two games to Ohio State and Marshall. In fact a quick look at Notre Dame games over the last decade during the first few weeks of the season finds several close games that the “experts” had pegged as blowouts.
Our model came up with a predicted score of Notre Dame 35 Navy 17 if this game was played at the conclusion of last season.
Time will tell how much better or worse each of these programs is in 2023 of course. But here in week 1, we think the travel and the rust factor for both squads gives Navy a good chance to stay within the number. The Irish win, but Navy gets the money.