Alabama vs. Tennessee: Tide Rolling into Rocky Waters in Knoxville
This Saturday, Neyland Stadium will be rocking as the No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers host the No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide in a classic SEC showdown (3:30 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+). While Alabama enters as a 3-point favorite (Betonline Sportsbook) with a total of 56.5, there’s a sense that this matchup could be a turning point in a rivalry that has been dominated by the Tide for the past 15 years.
Recent History:
Last year, Alabama asserted their dominance with a 34-20 victory at home. However, the 2022 meeting in Knoxville was an instant classic, with Tennessee snapping their 15-game losing streak against Alabama in a thrilling 52-49 shootout.
Tennessee’s Strengths:
- Explosive Offense: The Vols boast the 9th-ranked total offense (484.5 yards per game) and the 9th-ranked scoring offense (42.2 points per game) in the nation. Dylan Sampson has been a revelation, leading the ground attack and ranking 2nd in the country with 15 rushing touchdowns.
- Stingy Defense: Tennessee’s defense has been elite, ranking 2nd nationally in yards allowed (under 250 per game) and 4th in points allowed (10.7 per game). They haven’t given up more than 19 points in a single game this season.
Tennessee’s Concerns:
- Passing Game Struggles: Nico Iamaleava has struggled to connect on deep passes, evidenced by their short passing game against Florida.
- Key Injury: The loss of defensive captain and leading tackler Keenan Pili to a torn ACL is a significant blow to the Vols’ defense.
Alabama’s Strengths:
- Dual-Threat Quarterback: Jalen Milroe has been a dynamic playmaker, accounting for 23 touchdowns and over 300 yards of total offense per game, while completing 73% of his passes. Tennessee hasn’t faced a quarterback of his caliber this season.
- Offensive Firepower: Despite ranking 35th in total offense (442.3 yards per game), Alabama remains a potent scoring team, averaging 41.7 points per game (10th nationally).
Alabama’s Concerns:
- Vulnerability: Alabama has shown cracks in their armor this season. They struggled against South Florida, almost blew a big lead against Georgia, and suffered an upset loss to Vanderbilt. Their recent close call against South Carolina further suggests they are not the invincible force they once were.
Why Tennessee Can Pull Off the Upset:
- Home Field Advantage: Neyland Stadium will be an electric atmosphere, providing a significant boost for the Vols.
- Defensive Prowess: Tennessee’s defense has the ability to contain Alabama’s offense, especially if they can limit Milroe’s big plays.
- Motivational Edge: The Vols are eager to prove that last year’s victory was no fluke and that they are legitimate contenders in the SEC.
The Pick:
While Alabama still commands respect, the tide seems to be turning in this rivalry. Tennessee has the home-field advantage, a strong defense, and a dynamic running game. Our model predicts a 27-17 Tennessee victory.
Take Tennessee +3. This game has the potential to be another classic, and we believe the Vols will rise to the occasion and cover the spread.