College Football Week 1 Pick: Colorado State Rams vs. Texas Longhorns
The Matchup:
The Texas Longhorns will open their 2024 season hosting the Colorado State Rams on Saturday, August 31st, at 3:30 PM EST in Austin, Texas.
Betting Lines:
- Texas is a heavy favorite, with a 36-point spread at BetUS Sportsbook.
- The total is set at 56.
Texas Longhorns (2023 Record: 12-2):
- The Longhorns are coming off a stellar 2023 campaign, reaching the College Football Playoffs and finishing with a 12-2 record. Their only losses were close contests against Oklahoma and Washington.
- Head coach Steve Sarkisian enters his fifth year at the helm, now leading Texas into the competitive SEC.
- The Longhorns face a challenging schedule, including showdowns with Georgia, Florida, Oklahoma, and defending national champion Michigan in Week 2.
- The early focus on Michigan could potentially lead to Texas overlooking Colorado State in their opener.
Colorado State Rams (2023 Record: 5-7):
- The Rams had a mixed 2023 season, finishing 5-7 under head coach Jay Norvell.
- With seven returning starters on both offense and defense, their goal in 2024 is to secure a bowl berth.
- The non-conference schedule includes tough opponents like Texas, but the Rams have a chance to find success in their conference games.
Prediction:
Our model predicts a 48-10 victory for Texas. While the Longhorns are clearly the superior team, the potential for a letdown before their highly-anticipated matchup with Michigan could keep the final score closer than expected.
Betting Recommendation:
Given the circumstances, we recommend a small play on Colorado State +36.5. The Rams may be able to cover the spread if Texas struggles to maintain focus in this opening game.
Key Factors to Watch:
- Texas’ Motivation: Will the Longhorns maintain their intensity against a seemingly weaker opponent, or will they be distracted by the looming showdown with Michigan?
- Colorado State’s Improvement: Can the Rams capitalize on Texas’ potential lack of focus and showcase the progress they’ve made in the offseason?
- Quinn Ewers: The Texas quarterback’s performance will be crucial, especially with talented freshman Arch Manning waiting in the wings.
Overall:
This game presents an interesting dynamic. While Texas is the clear favorite on paper, the context surrounding the matchup could lead to an unexpected outcome. It’s a classic trap game scenario, and bettors should proceed with caution.