West Virginia vs. #11 Iowa State: Can the Mountaineers Pull Off the Upset in Primetime?
Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, WV – Saturday, October 12th, 8:00 PM EST
The stage is set for a Big 12 showdown under the lights in Morgantown, as the West Virginia Mountaineers (3-2) host the surging #11 Iowa State Cyclones (5-0). This matchup pits a West Virginia squad looking to prove itself against ranked opponents against an Iowa State team aiming to continue its historic start. With a raucous home crowd behind them, can the Mountaineers upset the favored Cyclones?
The Line: Iowa State -3, Over/Under 53 (BetOnline)
The Storylines:
- Iowa State’s Historic Run: The Cyclones are off to their best start since 1980, and a win would put them at 6-0 for just the second time in school history. They boast a stifling defense, ranking 5th nationally in defensive yards per point (22.6) and leading the Big 12 with 8 interceptions.
- West Virginia’s Up-and-Down Season: The Mountaineers have shown flashes of brilliance, especially in their win over Oklahoma State last week. However, they’ve struggled against ranked competition, with losses to Penn State and Pitt. Can they rise to the occasion against another top-ranked opponent?
- Strength vs. Strength: Iowa State’s elite pass defense (best in the Big 12) will be tested against West Virginia’s explosive ground game, led by quarterback Garrett Greene and running back Jahiem White.
- Home Field Advantage: West Virginia is 4-1 in their last five home games, and the Mountaineer faithful will be looking to create a hostile environment for the Cyclones.
Key Matchups:
- Iowa State’s secondary vs. West Virginia’s rushing attack: The Cyclones will need to contain Greene’s dual-threat ability and limit White’s big plays to slow down the Mountaineers.
- West Virginia’s defense vs. Iowa State QB Rocco Becht: Becht is coming off a strong performance against Baylor and will look to exploit a West Virginia defense that has shown vulnerability against the pass.
Trends to Watch:
- West Virginia is 4-2 against the spread in their last six games as an underdog.
- The under has hit in six of West Virginia’s last nine games against Iowa State.
The Prediction:
Our model predicts a 24-14 Iowa State victory, and we tend to agree. While West Virginia will have the home crowd advantage and a potent rushing attack, Iowa State’s overall defensive dominance and balanced offense should be enough to overcome the Mountaineers. Expect a hard-fought battle, but the Cyclones should emerge victorious and improve to 6-0.
Our Pick: Iowa State -3