Iowa vs. Iowa State: A Rivalry Renewed
The Stakes:
This week’s clash between the Iowa Hawkeyes and the Iowa State Cyclones is more than just a game; it’s a battle for in-state supremacy. This annual rivalry rarely disappoints in terms of competitiveness, regardless of each team’s preseason expectations. With Iowa favored by a slim 2.5 points and a total of 35.5 (Wagerweb), we’re in for another nail-biter.
Recent History:
- Last year, Iowa edged out Iowa State 20-13.
- The year before, the Cyclones prevailed 10-7.
- Over the past few decades, both teams have claimed their fair share of victories. Iowa has won 7 of the last 8 contests.
- An intriguing trend: since 1990, the road team has covered the spread 63% of the time.
Iowa State’s Outlook:
- Last season, the Cyclones bounced back from a 4-8 record in 2022 to finish 7-6.
- Their season was a mixed bag of hard-fought battles, typical of Coach Matt Campbell’s teams.
- The low points were losses to MAC team Ohio U (10-7) and a blowout against Oklahoma (50-20).
- The high point was a thrilling 42-35 victory over #19 Kansas State to close out the regular season.
- This year, they return 10 starters on offense and 9 on defense, providing continuity and experience.
Iowa’s Outlook:
- 2023 was another classic Iowa football season: a 10-4 record built on a stifling defense and a conservative offense.
- The Hawkeyes won 10 or more games for the third time in five seasons.
- However, their offensive struggles were evident, with seven games where they scored 15 points or fewer.
- Coach Kirk Ferentz enters his 26th year at the helm, boasting just five losing seasons during his tenure.
- Iowa also benefits from experience, returning 10 starters on offense and 8 on defense.
Model Prediction:
Our model forecasts a close, low-scoring game, with Iowa winning 14-13.
The Pick:
Despite Iowa’s recent dominance and home-field advantage, we’re leaning towards Iowa State in this matchup. The Hawkeyes’ offensive limitations make them a risky bet as a favorite. With the Cyclones due for a win in this series, and the historical trend favoring the road team, now seems like the perfect time for Iowa State to break through.
This game is a true toss-up, and we believe Iowa State will win outright in what could be one of the most exciting games of the weekend.
Our Pick: Iowa State +2.5