Big Ten Border Battle: Iowa Hawkeyes at Minnesota Golden Gophers – A Defensive Slugfest in the Making
Thursday, September 21, 2024, 7:30 pm EDT
The stage is set for a classic Big Ten West showdown as the Iowa Hawkeyes travel north to face the Minnesota Golden Gophers. With both teams boasting strong defenses and a history of low-scoring contests, this game is poised to be a tightly contested battle.
Iowa is favored by -2.5 with a total of 36 (Betonline)
Recent Form and Trends
Minnesota (2-1) started the season with a disappointing two-point loss to UNC but has bounced back convincingly, shutting out Rhode Island and Nevada by a combined score of 75-0. Iowa (2-1) also enters the game with two wins and a loss. The Hawkeyes secured victories against Troy and Illinois State but suffered a heartbreaking one-point loss to in-state rival Iowa State.
Recent history between these two teams suggests a defensive struggle. In the last two meetings, points have been at a premium, with Minnesota winning 12-10 last year and Iowa taking the 2022 matchup 13-10. Our model predicts a similar outcome, forecasting a 14-13 Iowa victory.
Historically, Iowa has covered the spread in 66% of games dating back to 1990 and the favorite has covered in 56% of matchups.
Key Matchups and Storylines
- Iowa’s Rushing Attack vs. Minnesota’s Run Defense: Iowa’s ground game has been impressive, averaging 6.3 yards per carry last week and boasting the nation’s leading rusher, Kaleb Johnson (479 yards, 6 TDs). They’ll face a formidable Minnesota defense that has allowed less than 600 total yards and forced nine turnovers through three games.
- Minnesota’s Ground Game vs. Iowa’s Stout Defense: The Gophers will look to establish their running game, which has accounted for 390 yards and six touchdowns this season. They’ll face a tough challenge against an Iowa defense that is allowing just 2.1 yards per rushing attempt.
- Iowa’s Secondary vs. Minnesota’s Passing Attack: Iowa cornerback TJ Hall has struggled at times this season, and Minnesota may try to exploit this weakness. However, the Gophers have relied heavily on their running game, so their passing attack remains somewhat of a question mark.
- Coaching Battle: Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz has a 17-7 record against Minnesota, but Gophers’ coach P.J. Fleck will be looking to close the gap in this historic rivalry.
Prediction
We agree with our model’s prediction of a low-scoring game. Iowa’s rushing attack will likely find some success, but Minnesota’s defense should keep them in check. The Gophers’ ground game will also face a tough test, but their defense could force turnovers and create scoring opportunities.
In what figures to be a close contest decided late, we like Minnesota to cover the spread at +2.5. While we would prefer +3, we still believe the Gophers have a good chance to win outright.
Final Score Prediction: Iowa 14 – Minnesota 13