Red River Showdown: Can Oklahoma Spoil Texas’ Perfect Season?
The Cotton Bowl in Dallas will be electric this Saturday as the No. 1 Texas Longhorns clash with the No. 16 Oklahoma Sooners in the latest chapter of the Red River Rivalry. This year’s matchup carries even more weight as both teams enter SEC play with aspirations of conference dominance.
Texas is favored by 14.5 with a total of 50.5 (MyBookie Sportsbook)
Texas Reloaded:
After a bye week, Texas returns to action with a healthy Quinn Ewers back under center. Ewers’ presence reignites the Longhorn offense, sending Arch Manning back to the bench. With a nearly flawless 16-1 record over the past two seasons, their sole blemish a 2023 loss to these very Sooners, Texas is looking to continue their dominant run. They boast a high-powered offense and a stifling defense, making them a formidable opponent for anyone.
Oklahoma’s Underdog Strategy:
Oklahoma, also coming off a bye, will be looking to disrupt Texas’ rhythm. With a new quarterback at the helm in Michael Hawkins Jr., the Sooners are expected to lean on a run-heavy attack, utilizing both their running backs and Hawkins’ mobility. Their goal? Control the clock, keep the Texas offense off the field, and limit the Longhorns’ scoring opportunities. The Sooners’ defense, a force to be reckoned with, will need to be at their best to contain Texas’ explosive attack.
Historical Trends and Betting Insights:
- Recent history favors Oklahoma, who have won 7 of the last 9 meetings.
- Texas has dominated against the spread recently, going 8-4 in their last 12 against Oklahoma.
- Recent games have been close, with 8 of the last 10 decided by one score.
- The over has hit in 6 of Texas’ last 8 games.
- Early betting action has driven the total down from 51.5 to 50.5, suggesting sharps are expecting a lower-scoring game.
Prediction:
Our model predicts a low-scoring 20-10 Texas victory. While we anticipate a more high-scoring affair than the model suggests, the under 50.5 seems like a solid play given the early betting trends and the defensive strength of both teams.
However, Oklahoma’s recent dominance in the rivalry, coupled with their run-heavy approach gives the Sooners a great shot at keeping this game within striking distance as we head down the stretch in the 4th quarter.
We like our chances with the Sooners and the generous spot.
Our Pick: Oklahoma +14.5
Don’t miss this classic rivalry game! It’s sure to be a hard-fought battle with major implications in the SEC landscape.