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Tennessee Volunteers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes – College Football Playoff First Round
Date: Saturday, December 21, 2025
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio
TV: ABC/ESPN
Spread: Ohio State -7.5Total: 46.5 (betonline)
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio
TV: ABC/ESPN
Spread: Ohio State -7.5Total: 46.5 (betonline)
As the College Football Playoff kicks off its expanded 12-team format, one of the highlight games of the first round pits the No. 9 seed Tennessee Volunteers against the No. 8 seed Ohio State Buckeyes. This matchup, set for a chilly December night in Columbus, promises to be a battle of contrasting styles and strengths, with Ohio State favored by 7.5 points and a game total set at a modest 46.5.
Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes are coming off a disappointing end to their regular season with a 13-10 loss to Michigan, which has left coach Ryan Day under intense scrutiny. Despite the setback, Ohio State’s talent pool remains one of the deepest in college football. Quarterback Will Howard has been efficient, boasting a 72% completion rate, supported by an elite receiving corps that includes potential first-round NFL draft picks like Emeka Egbuka and freshman sensation Jeremiah Smith. On defense, the Buckeyes have been nothing short of dominant, leading the nation in points and yards allowed per game. The challenge for Ohio State will be to bounce back from their last game and leverage their home advantage in what could be a cold, intimidating environment for Tennessee.
Tennessee Volunteers: Tennessee has had a renaissance season under head coach Josh Heupel, securing a 10-2 record with notable wins against Alabama and Oklahoma. The Vols bring a physical, run-heavy offense to Columbus, led by running back Dylan Sampson, who has eclipsed 1,500 rushing yards this season. However, Tennessee’s quarterback, Nico Iamaleava, has shown flashes of brilliance but inconsistency in passing, which could be exploited by Ohio State’s secondary. On the defensive side, Tennessee has one of the best defensive lines in college football, with players like James Pearce Jr., potentially creating havoc against Ohio State’s struggling offensive line.
Key Matchups:
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Tennessee’s Defensive Line vs. Ohio State’s Offensive Line: This matchup could dictate the flow of the game. If Tennessee can pressure Howard, they stand a chance to upset the Buckeyes.
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Ohio State’s Passing Game vs. Tennessee’s Secondary: The Buckeyes’ aerial attack will test the Vols’ backfield, which has been solid but not unbeatable.
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The Run Game: Both teams have star running backs, but Ohio State’s defense is elite against the run, which could neutralize Tennessee’s strength.
Our Pick
Our model, when using data from the last 7 games of the season only, predicts an Ohio State win by a score of 19-13.
Here are a few key stats:
| ypp-off | ypp-def | ypra-diff | |
| Tennessee | 12.8 | 19 | 2.1 |
| Ohio St | 11.9 | 22.1 | 2.1 |
Simple stats that tell a story. Above you’ll see the yards per point numbers on offense and defense along with the yards per rush attempt differential for both teams.
The Buckeyes yards per point numbers are slightly better on both sides of the ball. But both teams are among the best in the nation in that category.
The yards per rush attempt differential is a stat worth paying attention to. It’s worth noting that both teams have a differential of +2.1 which ties them for 3rd in the nation in this all importnt category.
One common approach by sharp handicappers is to find underdogs with a better yards per rush attempt differential than their opponents. While the Vols number isn’t better thn the Buckeyes, being tied with them and ranking 3rd in the nation certainlgy qualifies them as an underdog worth paying attention to.
If our model is correct in terms of the type of game to expect, which is a defensive battle, than those +7.5 points could loom large as this game progresses.
We’ll make two plays here.
Tennessee Vols +7.5
Tennessee/Ohio State UNDER 46.5
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