Arkansas Razorbacks vs. #4 Tennessee Volunteers: Can the Hogs Pull Off an Upset in Fayetteville?
The stage is set for a primetime SEC showdown in Fayetteville, Arkansas, as the Arkansas Razorbacks host the #4 Tennessee Volunteers on Saturday, October 5th. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM EST, and the Vols enter as sizeable -13.5 point road favorites. (MyBookie)
Tennessee’s Explosive Offense Faces a Test:
Tennessee has been nothing short of dominant offensively this season, boasting a 4-0 record and some eye-popping statistics. They lead the nation in points per game (54.0) and rank 7th in offensive yards per point (10.5). However, it’s important to consider the context of those numbers. Their impressive offensive output was largely fueled by lopsided victories against Kent State and Chattanooga. While they also dismantled NC State, the Wolfpack subsequently surrendered 59 points to Clemson, raising questions about the strength of that win.
The Vols’ true test came against Oklahoma, where they emerged with a more modest 25-15 victory. This week’s matchup against Arkansas will provide further insight into whether Tennessee’s offensive firepower can translate against a tougher SEC opponent. Coming off a bye week, the Vols have had ample time to prepare for the Razorbacks’ defense.
Arkansas Looks to Build on Last Year’s Foundation:
Arkansas is a team with a deceptive 3-2 record. While they only managed four wins last season, they were competitive against top-tier programs, including a narrow 24-21 loss to Alabama. With the majority of their starters returning this year, expectations were high for improvement.
So far, their season has been a mixed bag. They struggled to put away UAB, suffered a close overtime loss to Oklahoma State, and fell short against Texas A&M last week. However, their experience and proven ability to hang with the best teams in the country make them a dangerous opponent, especially at home.
Key Matchup:
Tennessee’s rushing attack, ranked #3 in the nation with 4.3 yards per attempt, will be a key factor in this game. Arkansas, on the other hand, has struggled to generate a consistent ground game, averaging only 0.9 yards per attempt. If the Razorbacks can’t establish the run and control the clock, they’ll be forced to rely on their passing game, which could play into the hands of Tennessee’s defense.
Historical Context:
The Razorbacks have a history of pulling off upsets against top-ranked opponents at home. Their last victory against a top-five team in Fayetteville came against then-#3 Tennessee in 1999. Could history repeat itself?
The Prediction:
While our model predicts a convincing 33-11 Tennessee victory, we believe Arkansas has the potential to keep this game closer than expected. Playing at home, under the lights, and with the added motivation of being significant underdogs, the Razorbacks have the ingredients to make this a competitive contest.
Our Picks:
- Arkansas +13.5: We like Arkansas to cover the spread.
- Arkansas +3.5 (1st Quarter): Expect a strong start from the Razorbacks.
- Arkansas +7.5 (1st Half): Arkansas should be able to keep it close in the first half.
This game promises to be a compelling matchup between a high-powered Tennessee offense and a resilient Arkansas team. Don’t be surprised if the Razorbacks make this a tougher test for the Volunteers than many anticipate.