Alabama Crimson Tide at Missouri Tigers: Can Mizzou’s Perfect Start Survive the Tide?

Saturday, October 11, 2025 | 12:00 PM EST | Columbia, Missouri

Betting Line: Alabama -3 | Total: 51.5 (MyBookie)

The undefeated Missouri Tigers face their stiffest test of the season when the Alabama Crimson Tide roll into Columbia on Saturday. While Mizzou enters at 5-0, questions linger about the quality of their opposition. Meanwhile, 4-1 Alabama has already navigated a fairly tough schedule to date.

Tale of Two Schedules

The contrast in strength of schedule couldn’t be more stark. Missouri’s unblemished record includes dominant performances against Central Arkansas, UMass, and Louisiana—teams that offered little resistance. Their only competitive contests came against South Carolina and Kansas, both ending with narrow margins and neither opponent representing elite competition.

Alabama’s resume tells a different story. The Tide’s slate includes Florida State (loss), Wisconsin, Georgia, and Vanderbilt—with their lone “cupcake” game against a weak opponent in UL Monroe (73-0).

Efficiency Metrics Paint a Clear Picture

When examining yards per point—one of the more reliable efficiency metrics—Alabama holds a distinct advantage on both sides of the ball. The Tide post an offensive mark of 12.5 and a defensive number of 17.9, indicating they’re scoring efficiently while forcing opponents to work harder for points.

Missouri’s offense checks in at 13.2, which is respectable, but their defensive yards per point of 11.8 ranks a troubling 122nd nationally. That’s a glaring weakness that hasn’t been exposed yet due to the level of competition, but Alabama’s offense represents a very large leap in difficulty.

Where Missouri does excel is in their rushing attack and overall explosiveness. Their yards per rush attempt differential of +3.9 ranks 2nd in the nation, while their yards per play differential of +2.5 sits 7th—both marks superior to Alabama’s. This ground game dominance has been the foundation of their undefeated start.

Historical Context Weighs Heavy

These programs have met five times since 2012, and the results aren’t pretty for Tigers fans. Alabama has won every meeting by at least 19 points, including last season’s 34-0 shutout at home. That dominant trend continued year after year, with the Tide consistently imposing their will regardless of location.

While past results don’t guarantee future outcomes, the pattern is impossible to ignore—especially when you factor in that Missouri still hasn’t proven they can compete with elite competition this season.

The Matchup Breakdown

Missouri’s offense will need to maintain its explosive rushing attack to keep pace, but Alabama’s defensive front has faced much more physical offensive lines already this season. The Tigers will need to make plays through the air when the run game inevitably faces resistance, and that’s where Alabama’s secondary—tested weekly against top competition—should have an edge in recognition and coverage skills.

On the flip side, Alabama’s offense should be licking its chops facing that 122nd-ranked defensive efficiency. Even if Missouri’s front seven can create some disruption with their impressive rush defense numbers, the Tide’s offense has already seen pressure from better defensive units and found ways to move the ball.

Model Projections and Betting Analysis

Our predictive models, which heavily weight strength of schedule in their calculations, both project an Alabama win. The first model forecasts a 29-16 Tide triumph, while the second sees it slightly closer at 26-19. Both projections have Alabama covering the -3 spread comfortably.

The Bottom Line

Missouri has done everything asked of them through five weeks, but they simply haven’t been asked to do much. Alabama arrives in Columbia having already survived the type of hostile environments and physical matchups that prepare a team for exactly this scenario.

The Tigers’ defensive efficiency numbers are concerning when facing an offense that’s been productive against far superior competition. While Missouri’s rushing attack can keep them in the game for stretches, history and analytics both point toward Alabama’s experience and efficiency edge being the difference.

Our Pick: Alabama -3

The Tide should be able to control the line of scrimmage on both sides and pull away in the second half, covering the short number and continuing their dominance in this series.