Arizona Faces Cincinnati in Big 12 Battle with Playoff Implications

Saturday, November 15, 2025 | 12:00 PM ET | Nippert Stadium | FS1

The Arizona Wildcats (6-3, 3-3 Big 12) travel to Cincinnati to face the No. 22 Bearcats (7-2, 5-1 Big 12) in a game that carries significant postseason implications for both squads. Cincinnati enters as a 6.5-point home favorite with the total set at 56.5 at MyBookie.

Championship Stakes for Cincinnati

While many teams would be playing for bowl positioning at this stage of the season, Cincinnati finds itself in a much different situation. The Bearcats control their own destiny in the Big 12 race, though they’ll need to run the table in their final three games to finish 8-1 in conference play. Even then, they’ll need Texas Tech to drop at least two of their remaining contests to have a legitimate shot at the conference championship game.

The motivation question looms large in modern college football, where players increasingly opt out of non-playoff bowl games to protect their draft or transfer portal stock. For Cincinnati, that concern doesn’t apply – they’re playing for something meaningful. For Arizona, however, the calculus is different. With the Wildcats already eliminated from championship contention, how motivated will they be to compete in what could be viewed as a relatively meaningless late-season road game?

Tale of Two Teams

Cincinnati has been one of the Big 12’s most pleasant surprises this season. After being picked to finish near the bottom of the conference, Scott Satterfield’s squad has rattled off wins in five of their six conference games. Their lone conference setback came at Utah, where they were blown out 31-0 in a game that exposed some defensive vulnerabilities.

The Bearcats’ success starts with quarterback Brendan Sorsby, who has thrown for 21 touchdowns against just three interceptions this season while adding eight scores on the ground. The dual-threat signal-caller has been particularly effective at avoiding negative plays – Cincinnati’s offensive line has surrendered just two sacks all season, a remarkable achievement that has earned them recognition on the Joe Moore Award watch list.

Arizona enters this contest having won their last outing against Kansas 24-20, but consistency has been an issue throughout the season.

Statistical Breakdown

Both teams rank favorably in key yards per play metrics, which suggests this could develop into a higher-scoring affair than the total might indicate. Cincinnati averages 436.4 yards per game, ranking 20th nationally in scoring at 35.6 points per contest. Their balanced attack features three players with over 450 rushing yards, led by the combination of Tawee Walker and Evan Pryor in the backfield.

Arizona’s defense has been the strength of their team, allowing just 293.6 yards per game (15th nationally) and 19.9 points per contest (28th). Their pass defense has been particularly stingy, ranking sixth nationally in passing yards allowed at 155.3 per game. However, they’ve shown vulnerability against the run, allowing 138.4 yards per game on the ground.

Betting Analysis

Our model projections show some interesting splits in how this game could play out:

Season-to-date projection: Arizona 25, Cincinnati 25
Last 4 games projection: Arizona 32, Cincinnati 30
Last 7 games projection: Arizona 26, Cincinnati 31

The variance in these projections reflects the inconsistency both teams have shown at different points this season. Cincinnati’s recent form suggests they should handle business at home, but Arizona has shown the ability to compete with ranked opponents when properly motivated.

The Play

Given the motivational dynamics at play and the uncertainty surrounding Arizona’s commitment level this late in the season, we’re making a small play on the Wildcats plus the points. While Cincinnati clearly has more to play for, the 6.5-point spread provides enough cushion for Arizona to stay within the number if they show up ready to compete.

The key will be whether Arizona’s defense can slow down Sorsby and force Cincinnati into third-and-long situations where their pass rush can get home. If the Wildcats can control the line of scrimmage and keep this game in the 20s, they should have enough offensive firepower to cover the spread.

Pick: Arizona +6.5