Arkansas at Memphis College Football Betting Preview – September 20, 2025

Game Details:

• Date: Saturday, September 20, 2025
• Time: 12:00 PM ET
• Location: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN
• TV: ABC
• Spread: Arkansas -7 (MyBookie)
• Total: 63 points (Betonline)

Our Pick: Memphis +7

The undefeated Memphis Tigers (3-0) host the Arkansas Razorbacks (2-1) on Saturday, September 20, with kickoff at 12 noon EST. While Arkansas enters as road favorites, we’re backing the home underdog Memphis to keep this one within the number.

Recent Form Analysis

Arkansas comes off an entertaining 41-35 shootout loss at Ole Miss, a game that showcased both the Razorbacks’ offensive capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities. The loss dropped them to 2-1 on the season, with their only road test resulting in defeat. In that contest against the Rebels, Arkansas accumulated an impressive 526 total yards on 72 plays, including 221 rushing yards on 37 carries for a solid 6.0 yards per attempt.

Memphis, meanwhile, remains perfect at 3-0 following a dominant 28-7 victory over Troy. The Tigers controlled that game from start to finish, limiting Troy to just 72 passing yards while rushing for 217 yards on 45 carries at 4.8 yards per attempt. This performance continued their strong early-season form, having also defeated Georgia State 38-16 and opened with a victory over a weaker opponent.

Statistical Breakdown

Arkansas Offensive Profile:

• Averaging 47.7 points per game (8th nationally)
• 245.3 rushing yards per game (12th nationally)
• 1,708 total yards through three games
• Strong ground game averaging 6.0 YPC against Ole Miss

Memphis Offensive Profile:

• Scoring 37.0 points per game (44th nationally)
• 421.0 total yards per game (56th nationally)
• 218.3 rushing yards per game
• 202.7 passing yards per contest (86th in Division I)

Defensive Considerations: Arkansas has struggled defensively, allowing 331.7 yards per game (65th in D-I) and 20.7 points per contest (66th nationally). They’ve been particularly vulnerable through the air, surrendering 218.3 passing yards per game with a 62.1% completion percentage allowed.

Memphis presents a stark contrast defensively, allowing just 11.0 points per game (21st nationally) and giving up only 69.0 rushing yards per contest. The Tigers have been particularly stout against the run, which could pose problems for Arkansas’s ground-heavy attack.

The Yards Per Rush Differential Factor

Both teams rank among the nation’s best in yards per rush attempt differential – a crucial metric in college football handicapping. Teams that can run effectively while stopping opponents’ rushing attacks typically find success, particularly in close games. However, the strength of schedule caveat cannot be ignored for either squad.

Arkansas’s impressive rushing numbers came against lesser competition before being tested by Ole Miss, where they managed respectable ground production despite the loss. Memphis’s defensive statistics, while impressive, have been compiled against Georgia State, Troy, and another Group of Five opponent – a significant step down from SEC competition.

Key Matchup Factors

Step Up in Class: This represents Memphis’s first true test against Power Four competition. While the Tigers have looked dominant against inferior opponents, Arkansas brings a different level of athleticism and depth.

Road Struggles: Arkansas enters 0-1 on the road this season after the Ole Miss defeat. Road favorites in early-season conference matchups often face more resistance than expected, particularly when facing undefeated home underdogs.

Injury Concerns: Arkansas faces some depth issues with key players including Devin Bale and Mason Schueck listed as questionable. Memphis has Greg Desrosiers Jr. questionable with a lower-body injury, though their depth has proven adequate through three games.

Historical Context and Trends

The betting trends favor the home underdog scenario. Memphis has demonstrated an ability to cover numbers at home, while Arkansas showed both promise and vulnerability in their shootout with Ole Miss. The Razorbacks’ defensive issues could be exploited by a Memphis team that has been methodical rather than spectacular on offense.

Our model, using season to date data predicts a 23-21 Memphis upset. However we’d tread lightly as the model ideally needs a couple more weeks to start clicking.

The Bottom Line

While Arkansas brings more overall talent and higher-level experience, Memphis presents value as a home underdog getting seven points. The Tigers’ defensive improvement under their current system, combined with Arkansas’s road struggles and defensive inconsistencies, creates an environment where the home team can keep pace.

The strength of schedule question works both ways – while Memphis hasn’t been tested, Arkansas’s impressive offensive showing against Ole Miss came in a loss where their defense was gashed for 41 points. In a game projected to be high-scoring by most metrics, having the extra points with a disciplined home team presents solid value.

Final Recommendation: Memphis +7