Arkansas at Ole Miss Betting Preview: Rebels Look to Cover in SEC Showdown
Game Details:
- Matchup: Arkansas Razorbacks (2-0) at Ole Miss Rebels (2-0)
- Date/Time: Saturday, September 13, 2025 at 7:00 PM EDT
- Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS
- Television: ESPN
- Spread: Ole Miss -7.5 (MyBookie)
- Total: 61.5 (MyBookie)
The Setup: Two Undefeated SEC Rivals Clash
Both teams enter this SEC rivalry matchup with pristine 2-0 records, but their paths to this point tell different stories. Arkansas at Ole Miss Betting Preview: 9-13-25 in Alabama A&M and Arkansas State.
Offensive Firepower on Display
The Razorbacks have been explosive offensively, averaging 54 points per game behind quarterback Taylen Green’s stellar early-season performance. Green has been surgical through two games, completing 71.9% of his passes for 561 yards and an impressive 10 touchdowns against just two interceptions. His dual-threat ability makes him difficult to game-plan against on short notice.
Arkansas’ ground attack has been equally impressive, churning out 257.5 yards per game. Mike Washington Jr. has been particularly effective, averaging over 10 yards per carry with 195 yards through two contests.
For Ole Miss, the offensive production has been solid if not spectacular, averaging 46.5 points per game and 575 yards of total offense, ranking 6th nationally. Austin Simmons has thrown for 576 yards with 3 touchdowns, though his 4 interceptions (2 per game) represent a concerning trend that could prove costly against better competition.
The Rebels’ rushing attack has been led by Kewan Lacy, who tops the SEC with 4 rushing touchdowns and has accumulated 246 yards on the ground, providing the offensive balance that makes Ole Miss dangerous.
Defensive Considerations
Arkansas enters with impressive defensive numbers, allowing just 10.5 points per game and ranking among the nation’s elite in third and fourth-quarter opponent scoring (0.0 points allowed in both quarters). The Razorbacks have been stingy against both the run (3.3 yards per attempt) and pass (56.9% completion rate allowed).
Ole Miss’ defense has been adequate if not spectacular, surrendering 15.0 points per game. They’ll need to step up against an Arkansas offense that has shown explosive potential, even if it came against inferior competition.
Key Matchup Factors
Schedule Strength Disparity: This represents Arkansas’ first true test after dominating two significantly weaker opponents. The step up in competition could expose areas of concern that weren’t apparent in their early blowouts.
Home Field Advantage: Ole Miss gets the benefit of playing in Oxford, where they’ve shown the ability to rise to the occasion in big games. The Rebels are coming off an emotional road victory at Kentucky that demonstrated their capability in pressure situations.
Quarterback Turnover Concerns: Simmons’ interception issues (4 in 2 games) could be problematic against an Arkansas defense that has shown the ability to create takeaways. However, facing a higher level of competition may also expose Green to more pressure than he’s seen to date.
Running Game Battle: Both teams feature productive ground attacks, with Washington Jr. and Lacy providing explosive potential. The team that establishes dominance on the ground early could control the pace and outcome.
Historical Context and Trends
Recent history favors the underdog in this series, with Arkansas covering 8 of the last 10 meetings between these teams. The Razorbacks are also 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games when receiving 7 or more points, suggesting they perform well in the underdog role.
Conversely, Ole Miss has struggled as heavy favorites, going 4-5 ATS in their last 9 games favored by 7 or more points, including two outright losses during that span.
The Betting Recommendation
Side Pick: Arkansas +7.5
While Ole Miss appears to be the more complete team with better overall talent and home field advantage, this line presents value on the Arkansas side. The Razorbacks bring an experienced dual-threat quarterback who can create problems for defenses, and their perfect record in the third and fourth quarters suggests excellent conditioning and preparation.
The combination of Arkansas’ historical success as an underdog, Ole Miss’ inconsistency as a large favorite, and potential letdown concerns for the Rebels following their emotional Kentucky victory creates a scenario where the points provide solid value.
Total Pick: Over 61.5
Both offenses have shown explosive capability early in the season. Arkansas is averaging 54 points per game, while Ole Miss has put up 46.5 points per contest. Even accounting for stronger defensive competition, both teams possess the offensive weapons to contribute to a higher-scoring affair.
The total of 61.5 appears conservative given both teams’ early-season offensive production and the potential for this rivalry game to produce fireworks in front of a national television audience.
Bottom Line
Take Arkansas +7.5 and the Over 61.5. The Razorbacks have the tools to keep this competitive, and both offenses should contribute to a game that exceeds the total in what promises to be an entertaining SEC showdown in Oxford.