
Arkansas at Tennessee: Take the Points with the Razorbacks
Saturday, October 11, 2025 | 4:15 PM ET | SEC Network
Line: Tennessee -12.5 | Total: 69.5 | MyBookie
When Arkansas travels to Neyland Stadium this Saturday, the betting line tells a story of two teams heading in opposite directions. The Volunteers enter at 4-1 overall and 1-1 in SEC play, while the Razorbacks limp in at 2-3 (0-1 SEC) riding a three-game losing streak. Yet despite the double-digit spread, there’s value to be found with Arkansas catching +13 at select sportsbooks.
The Case for Arkansas +13
For a team sitting at 2-3, Arkansas maintains surprisingly strong statistical indicators that suggest they’re better than their record shows. The Razorbacks match Tennessee dead even in yards per rush attempt differential, both teams ranking 15th nationally in this key metric. Their yards per play differential of +1.4 slots them 26th nationally – not far behind Tennessee’s 12th-ranked +2.1 differential. These numbers paint a picture of a team that can move the ball effectively despite recent struggles.
The backdoor remains wide open in what projects as a shootout. Both defenses struggle converting yards into stops – Arkansas allows 13.3 defensive yards per point (95th nationally) while Tennessee sits even worse at 12.9 (104th). When both teams can move the ball but struggle to prevent scoring, laying double digits becomes a risky proposition.
Recent Form and Context
Much of this inflated spread stems from Arkansas’s 56-13 demolition at the hands of Notre Dame two weeks ago. However, that blowout obscures some competitive performances earlier this season. The Razorbacks fell to #4 Ole Miss by just six points (41-35) and dropped a one-point heartbreaker to Memphis. These results suggest Arkansas can hang with quality competition when they avoid the self-inflicted wounds that plagued them against the Irish.
Tennessee comes off a 41-34 win over Mississippi State, continuing their high-scoring ways. The Volunteers average an impressive 51.0 points per game (1st in Division 1) while racking up 536.4 yards per contest (6th nationally). Their explosive offense features 337.2 passing yards per game (4th in the nation) complemented by a solid ground attack averaging 199.2 yards.
Statistical Breakdown
Arkansas Offense: The Razorbacks average 37.4 points per game while churning out 213.8 rushing yards (21st nationally). They’ve accumulated 125 first downs through five games but have hurt themselves with 8 turnovers and 31 penalties for 277 yards. When they protect the ball and avoid drive-killing mistakes, this offense has shown it can produce.
Arkansas Defense: The defensive unit allows 30.0 points per game (110th nationally) and 425.0 total yards (119th). They’ve been particularly vulnerable through the air, surrendering 257.0 passing yards per game with opponents completing 62.0% of their attempts. Against the run, teams average 4.4 yards per carry and 168.0 yards per game.
Tennessee Offense: Beyond their gaudy scoring average, the Volunteers have been remarkably efficient, averaging 6.5 yards per play. They’ve turned the ball over just 9 times (5 interceptions, 4 fumbles) while recording 139 first downs. Their balanced attack keeps defenses honest and creates explosive play opportunities.
Tennessee Defense: Despite their offensive prowess, the Volunteers’ defense remains suspect, allowing 29.0 points per game (103rd nationally). They’ve surrendered 258.2 passing yards per game (118th) and 115.2 rushing yards. Opponents have found success both through the air (7 passing TDs) and on the ground (11 rushing TDs).
Keys to Covering the Spread
For Arkansas to stay within the number, they must execute in several critical areas:
Ball Security: The Razorbacks cannot afford multiple turnovers against Tennessee’s opportunistic defense. Limiting giveaways keeps them in striking distance and prevents the short-field situations that lead to blowouts.
Establish the Ground Game: Arkansas needs their rushing attack to control tempo and keep Tennessee’s explosive offense off the field. If they can approach their season average of 213.8 yards rushing, they’ll create manageable down-and-distance situations while eating clock.
Red Zone Efficiency: When Arkansas reaches scoring range, they must capitalize with touchdowns rather than field goals. Against a Tennessee team that scores at will, matching touchdowns becomes essential to staying within the spread.
Fourth Quarter Competitiveness: The Razorbacks must avoid the late-game collapses that have plagued them this season. Maintaining focus and execution through four quarters keeps the backdoor open even if they trail by multiple scores.
The Betting Angle
This setup screams value on the underdog. High-scoring affairs with poor defensive efficiency metrics create natural backdoor opportunities. Tennessee’s defense has shown vulnerability all season – they’ve allowed 29+ points in multiple games and struggle to get stops when needed. Even in wins, the Volunteers have allowed opponents to hang around and pile up points.
With both teams coming off bye weeks, neither holds a rest advantage. This extra preparation time typically benefits underdogs more than favorites, as coaching staffs can implement specific game plans to attack weaknesses. Interim head coach Bobby Petrino brings offensive expertise that could exploit Tennessee’s defensive vulnerabilities.
The market may be overreacting to Arkansas’s blowout loss to Notre Dame while overlooking their competitive showings against Ole Miss and Memphis. Those performances demonstrate this team’s capability when playing to their potential. At home, Tennessee should win, but covering two touchdowns against a desperate Arkansas team with nothing to lose appears challenging.
Final Analysis
Tennessee wins this game more often than not, but Arkansas +13 offers significant value in what shapes up as a track meet. The Razorbacks possess enough offensive firepower to stay within range, especially given Tennessee’s defensive limitations. Look for Arkansas to exceed market expectations even in defeat.
Both teams’ defensive struggles and offensive capabilities support the high total, making the over 69.5 worth consideration as a secondary play. However, the primary value lies with Arkansas catching the points in a game where scoring should flow freely for both sides.
The Pick: Arkansas +13
Lean: Over 69.5