Baylor Bears vs. SMU Mustangs Betting Preview (Sept. 6, 2025)

College football fans in the Dallas‑Fort Worth metroplex have an interesting Week 2 showdown when Baylor heads north on I‑35 to take on No. 16 SMU at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. The matchup is scheduled for 11 a.m. CT on Saturday and will air nationally on The CW. Betonline has installed SMU as a 3‑point favorite with a total around 65.5 points.

Why SMU Deserves the Favorite Role

SMU’s upward trajectory under head coach Rhett Lashlee continued last season when the Mustangs secured an at‑large bid to the expanded 12‑team College Football Playoff. Even after losing some NFL‑bound playmakers, the Mustangs opened the 2025 campaign with a 42‑13 rout of East Texas A&M. Their dual‑threat quarterback was efficient, completing 22 of 30 passes for 260 yards and two touchdowns while adding a rushing score. In 2024 he logged 354 rushing yards and five touchdowns, so SMU’s offense remains dangerous when he tucks the ball.

ESPN’s Football Power Index also backs SMU. The analytics model gives Baylor just a 33.1 percent chance to win, reflecting the separation between these programs. SMU’s defense quietly improved last fall and continued that trend in Week 1; the Mustangs held the Lions to 13 points, forced mistakes and limited explosive plays. Last year SMU finished 7‑6 against the spread (ATS) and went 5‑4 when favored by at least three points. With home‑field advantage and a confident roster coming off a playoff appearance, it’s easy to understand why oddsmakers leaned toward the Mustangs.

Baylor’s Early‑Season Concerns

There were high hopes in Waco entering Dave Aranda’s fifth season, but Week 1 did not go as planned. Baylor scored on its opening drive against Auburn, then stalled repeatedly and eventually lost 38‑24. The Bears’ defense looked suspect; Auburn racked up 307 rushing yards and their quarterback gouged Baylor for 137 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. The Bears were credited with 22 missed tackles, a statistic that could spell disaster against SMU’s mobile quarterback and tempo‑driven offense.

On offense the Bears did have flashes — their quarterback threw for 419 yards and three scores against Auburn — but Baylor lacks the balanced rushing attack to impose its will. The Bears went 0‑1 ATS in their opener and have yet to cover a spread this season. Traveling to face a top‑20 program that reached the playoff and has already found its rhythm is a tall task for an 0‑1 team looking to iron out defensive issues.

Series History and Context

These programs have a rich rivalry dating back to 1920. Baylor leads the all‑time series 37‑35‑5, but the schools haven’t met since 2016, a game the Bears won 40‑13. Baylor has dominated recent meetings — they’ve won 12 straight against SMU — yet the dynamics have shifted dramatically since their last clash. SMU joined the ACC and reached the College Football Playoff, while Baylor has posted back‑to‑back losing seasons.

Betting Analysis and Prediction

Oddsmakers set SMU as a three‑point favorite and project a high‑scoring affair with the total hovering around 65.5 points. Sportsbook Wire’s prediction leans Mustangs as well, projecting SMU 33, Baylor 27. Our in‑house model is even more bullish on the home side, forecasting SMU 34–28 — still under the posted total but enough to cover the spread.

There are several reasons to lay the points with SMU:

• Offensive efficiency – SMU’s quarterback is an accurate passer (73.3 % completions in Week 1) and adds a ground element. That versatility puts pressure on a Baylor defense that just surrendered 307 rushing yards to Auburn.

• Defensive improvement – The Mustangs allowed only 13 points in their opener and last year’s unit was solid against the run. Baylor’s reliance on its passing game (419 yards vs. Auburn) may lead to turnovers or stalled drives if SMU generates pressure.

• Analytics edge – ESPN’s FPI gives the Bears barely one‑third chance to win. Sportsbook Wire notes that SMU went 7‑6 ATS last season and 5‑4 as a favorite of three points or more. Baylor has yet to cover a spread this year.

• Home‑field advantage – Gerald J. Ford Stadium will be electric for SMU’s home opener. The Bears haven’t played at SMU since 2015 and will be facing a crowd eager to witness a playoff team in its new ACC era.

Best Bet: SMU ‑3 (Lean Under 65.5)

Given Baylor’s defensive issues and SMU’s balanced offense, the Mustangs should control this game. Baylor will hit some big plays through the air, but SMU’s ability to sustain drives and finish in the red zone — plus a quietly improving defense — should create separation by the fourth quarter. With our model projecting a 34‑28 outcome, there’s value in laying the field goal and potentially pairing it with an under play on the total.

Pick: SMU ‑3 | Lean: Under 65.5

SMU made a statement by reaching the College Football Playoff last season, and early indications suggest that was no fluke. Baylor’s defense needs time to gel after an ugly opener. Until the Bears demonstrate improvement at the line of scrimmage and in tackling, backing the Mustangs at home is the prudent play.