Kansas Looks to End 16-Game Skid Against Kansas State
The Sunflower Showdown returns to Lawrence on Saturday, October 25, with Kansas entering as 3-point favorites over Kansas State. The total sits at 56.5 points at MyBookie, setting up what should be another close battle between these Big 12 rivals.
Stakes Remain High for Bowl Eligibility
Both teams enter this matchup with identical 2-2 conference records, though Kansas holds a slight edge at 4-3 overall compared to Kansas State’s 3-4 mark. While neither squad will contend for the Big 12 title with five conference games remaining, bowl eligibility remains very much in play. Each team needs to reach six wins to secure a postseason berth, making every remaining game crucial.
Recent History Suggests Another Tight Contest
Kansas State’s dominance in this rivalry spans 16 straight wins, but the gap has narrowed considerably in recent years. The past two meetings were decided by just two and four points respectively, a far cry from the blowouts that characterized this series for over a decade. Kansas has transformed into a competitive program, and the betting line reflects this shift.
Model Analysis Points to Close Game
Our projection model produces interesting results when examining different data sets. Using full season statistics, we project a 30-26 Kansas win. However, when focusing solely on the last four games for each team, the model flips to favor Kansas State 37-30. This variance suggests both teams have shown different forms throughout the season.
The Case for Kansas
Several factors point toward Kansas finally breaking through in this rivalry. Playing at home provides a significant advantage, especially in a game where emotions run high. Senior quarterback Jalon Daniels, in his final year of eligibility, brings experience and added motivation. No college player wants to finish their career without beating their biggest rival, and Daniels has that chance on Saturday.
The three-point spread indicates oddsmakers see this as essentially an even matchup when accounting for home field advantage. Given how close the recent games have been and Kansas playing at home with everything on the line, this feels like their best opportunity to snap the streak.
The Play
We’re backing Kansas on the moneyline at -140. After 16 straight losses in this rivalry, the Jayhawks have the pieces in place to finally break through. The combination of home field advantage, a veteran quarterback with extra motivation, and a Kansas State team struggling at 3-4 makes this the right spot to back the Jayhawks to end their drought.
The recent competitiveness of this series, with the last two games decided by a combined six points, suggests Kansas State’s dominance has already ended – they just need one more push to get their first win. Saturday in Lawrence could be that moment.