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College Football Betting Preview: Buffalo Bulls vs. Minnesota Gophers
The 2025 college football season kicks off with an intriguing non-conference clash as the Buffalo Bulls travel to Huntington Bank Stadium to face the Minnesota Gophers on August 28 at 8:00 PM EST. Minnesota enters as a 17.5-point favorite (betonline) with the game total set at 45.5, setting the stage for a matchup between a MAC contender and a Big Ten stalwart. Let’s break down the key factors, stats, and trends to guide your betting decisions.
Team Overviews
Buffalo Bulls (2024: 9-4, 6-2 MAC)
Under second-year head coach Pete Lembo, Buffalo returns a robust 14 starters—six on offense and eight on defense—positioning them as a potential MAC title contender. The Bulls’ offense is bolstered by the addition of experienced quarterback Ta’Quan Roberson, previously with Kansas State and UConn, though a six-man QB competition in the spring raises questions about cohesion.
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Three returning offensive linemen provide stability, and Buffalo’s balanced, run-heavy attack (41 rushes vs. 26.7 passes per game) averaged 28.8 points, 355.4 total yards (169.1 rushing, 186.3 passing) last season.
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Defensively, Buffalo boasts the MAC’s top unit, allowing 26.4 points per game (80th nationally) with 250 passing yards and 146.6 rushing yards conceded per game. Their 4.1 yards per carry allowed hints at vulnerabilities against stronger rushing attacks.
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Minimal losses via the transfer portal keep this defense intact, but stepping up in class has historically been a challenge—Buffalo was routed 38-0 by Missouri last year and lost by 20+ points to Nebraska, Maryland, Wisconsin, and others in recent seasons.
Minnesota Gophers (2024: 8-5, 5-4 Big Ten)
In his ninth year, head coach P.J. Fleck leads a Minnesota team with five returning starters on each side of the ball. The Gophers face significant turnover, losing six-year starting QB Max Brosmer, three offensive linemen, two senior receivers, and their top two cornerbacks.
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Redshirt freshman Drake Lindsey is the likely QB replacement, and new defensive coordinator Danny Collins steps in to maintain Minnesota’s defense, which allowed just 16.9 points per game in 2024—one of the nation’s stingiest units. Offensively, Minnesota averaged 26.2 points and 340 total points over 13 games, showing consistency if not explosiveness.
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Minnesota’s non-conference dominance under Fleck is notable: a 21-3 record and 17-7 ATS (5th nationally since 2017) suggest they handle lesser opponents comfortably. However, the roster changes introduce uncertainty, particularly on offense and in the secondary.
Key Matchup Factors
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Buffalo’s Offense vs. Minnesota’s Defense: Buffalo’s balanced attack, led by Roberson, could test Minnesota’s revamped secondary. However, the Gophers’ elite 2024 defense (16.9 PPG allowed) and physical front should challenge Buffalo’s offensive line and run-heavy approach. Buffalo’s 28.8 PPG may struggle against a Big Ten defense.
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Minnesota’s Offense vs. Buffalo’s Defense: Minnesota’s offense, breaking in a new QB and offensive line, faces a stout Buffalo defense that returns eight starters. Yet, Buffalo’s 4.1 yards per carry allowed and 26.4 PPG conceded suggest Minnesota’s ground game could find success, especially if Lindsey manages the game effectively.
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Historical Context: These teams last met in 2017, with Minnesota winning 17-7 as 23-point favorites. While Buffalo is improved, their recent struggles against Power 4 opponents (e.g., 38-0 vs. Missouri, large losses to Nebraska, Maryland, Wisconsin) indicate a steep challenge. Our model, based on 2024 rosters, projected a 52-10 Minnesota blowout, though roster changes temper that margin slightly.
Betting Analysis
Spread: Minnesota -17.5
Minnesota’s non-conference ATS success (17-7 since 2017) and defensive strength make them a strong candidate to cover the 17.5-point spread. Buffalo’s returning talent and improved offense under Roberson could keep this closer than their past Power 4 blowouts, but Minnesota’s physicality and home-field advantage should overwhelm the Bulls. Buffalo’s historical struggles when stepping up in class (20+ point losses) further support Minnesota covering.
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Total: Over/Under 45.5
Buffalo’s 28.8 PPG and Minnesota’s 26.2 PPG suggest potential for points, especially if Buffalo exploits Minnesota’s new secondary. The Gophers’ run game could also capitalize on Buffalo’s 146.6 rushing yards allowed per game. While Minnesota’s defense may limit Buffalo’s scoring, the total feels low enough for both teams to push this over, particularly if Minnesota scores 30+ points.
Final Prediction
Despite Buffalo’s returning talent and MAC title aspirations, Minnesota represents a significant step up in competition. The Gophers’ defensive strength, non-conference dominance, and home-field edge should lead to a comfortable victory. Buffalo may find some offensive rhythm, but their historical struggles against Power 4 foes and Minnesota’s ATS reliability point to a double-digit win.
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Pick: Minnesota -17.5
Lean: Over 45.5
Lean: Over 45.5
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Expect Minnesota to control the trenches and pull away in the second half, covering the spread in a game that could sneak past the total if Buffalo contributes a few scores.
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