Duke at Tulane Football Preview & Betting Analysis

Saturday, September 13, 2025 | 8:00 PM ET | Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA | ESPN/ESPN+

MyBookie Spread: Duke +1 | Total: 54.5

The Revenge Game Narrative

This Saturday night in the Big Easy Duke quarterback Darian Mensah returns to face his former program. After leading Tulane to nine wins and an AAC Championship Game appearance in 2024, Mensah transferred to Duke and now finds himself in a must-win situation following a devastating 45-19 home loss to Illinois.

The betting markets have spoken loudly about their confidence levels in both programs – despite Tulane being unranked, the Green Wave opened as favorites ranging from 2.5 to 3 points across various sportsbooks.

Duke’s Crossroads Moment

The Blue Devils (1-1) enter this contest in crisis mode following their humiliating collapse against Illinois. After controlling much of that game through three quarters, Duke imploded spectacularly in the fourth quarter, committing five turnovers that directly led to 21 Illinois points. The most concerning aspect wasn’t just the turnovers, but the complete defensive breakdown that saw them surrender over 100 rushing yards in the second half after allowing negative rushing yards in the first half.

Mensah completed 23 of 34 passes for 334 yards and two touchdowns against Illinois, but his three interceptions overshadowed the positive statistics. The dual-threat quarterback who once thrived in this same New Orleans environment now faces the ultimate test of mental fortitude returning to face his former teammates.

Duke’s Key Statistics:

• Averaging 32.0 points per game but allowing 31.0 PPG
• Passing offense ranks 5th nationally at 372.5 yards per game
• Ground game struggles at just 120.5 yards per contest (102nd nationally)
• Turnover issues with 6 giveaways through two games

Tulane’s Steady Progression

The Green Wave (2-0) have quietly assembled an impressive start under their new signal-caller Jake Retzlaff, who transferred from BYU as a walk-on due to personal issues. Tulane’s victories over Northwestern (23-3) and South Alabama (33-31) showcase a program that knows how to win close games and control tempo.

Retzlaff has been efficient if not spectacular, completing 56.4% of his passes for 277 yards with 2 touchdowns and zero interceptions. More importantly, he’s added a dynamic rushing element with 177 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground, giving Tulane’s offense the same dual-threat capability that made Mensah successful here in 2024.

Tulane’s Strengths:

• Balanced rushing attack averaging 255 yards per game
• Stingy defense allowing just 17.0 points per contest
• Perfect in quarters 2 and 3, ranking T-1st nationally in opponent scoring (0.0 PPG in both quarters)
• Home field advantage at Yulman Stadium where they’re 10-3 in their last 13

Historical Context & Betting Trends

Duke holds a surprising 3-0 all-time advantage in this series, including a dominant 37-7 victory in their last meeting at Tulane in 2015. However, those historical results feel largely irrelevant given the personnel changes and current trajectories of both programs.

The betting trends paint a clear picture of recent form:

• Tulane has won each of its last eight September games against non-AP-ranked teams
• Duke has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games against non-conference opponents
• Tulane has covered the spread in each of its last three home games against non-conference opponents
• Ten of Tulane’s last 11 games against teams from North Carolina have gone UNDER the total

The Coaching Factor

The contrast in coaching stability couldn’t be starker. Duke’s Manny Diaz faces intense pressure after the Illinois debacle, with betting markets showing little confidence in the Blue Devils’ ability to compete against quality opponents. Meanwhile, Tulane’s coaching staff has methodically built a program culture that consistently exceeds expectations.

The Illinois loss revealed concerning issues with Duke’s discipline and game management, as mental mistakes and poor coaching decisions allowed Illinois to “blow the doors off in the fourth quarter”. These types of fundamental breakdowns suggest deeper systemic issues that don’t get fixed in one week.

Betting Analysis

The Spread: Duke +1

The betting markets have clearly “shunned” Duke following their disappointing performance, making them road underdogs against an unranked opponent. This line movement reflects legitimate concerns about Duke’s mental state and coaching.

Case for Tulane (-1):

• Home field advantage where they’ve “won the first half in each of its last nine games against non-conference opponents”
• Superior defensive metrics, allowing just 17 points per game compared to Duke’s 31
• Historical trend of covering as small home favorites (11 of last 15 games)
• Revenge factor against Mensah could provide extra motivation

Case for Duke (+1):

• Strong trend as underdogs, having “covered the spread in nine of its last 10 games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams”
• Mensah’s familiarity with Tulane’s personnel and schemes
• Potential for emotional bounce-back performance after Illinois embarrassment

The Total: 54.5

This total sits in an interesting spot, with “each of Duke’s last four games against non-conference opponents” going OVER, while “ten of Tulane’s last 11 games against teams from North Carolina have gone UNDER”.

Under Factors:

• Tulane’s dominant quarter-by-quarter defense, especially ranking T-1st in Q2 and Q3 opponent scoring
• Historical trend in this regional matchup
• Duke’s potential for conservative play-calling to avoid turnovers
• Both teams averaging under 30 points per game

Expert Predictions

The Pick: Tulane -1

The analysis points toward taking “Tulane at home” due to Duke’s “undisciplined style of ball” that could lead to the “game getting ugly” on the road. Multiple experts favor “the hosts in this spot as small home favorites”, citing Tulane’s perfect 2-0 start and Duke’s concerning 1-1 record with red flags.

The psychological factor of Mensah returning to face his former program adds another layer of pressure on a quarterback already reeling from a five-turnover performance. Duke needs this win desperately as they “will likely need to win out for any hope of a College Football Playoff berth”, but that pressure could lead to more mistakes.

Total Pick: UNDER 54.5

The historical trend of this regional matchup going under, combined with Tulane’s elite quarter-by-quarter defensive performance, suggests a lower-scoring affair than the market expects.